Home · Science · Nov 11 archive

El Niño Drives Global Temperatures Above 1.5 Degrees Celsius

Updated 6:24 PM ET · 3:22 PM ETConfirmedShare via:          

Science Desk

In Short: The current El Niño event is pushing global temperatures above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold above preindustrial levels, likely for the next two years.

CelsiusKelvinThermometer.

File:How NASA Sees the Shift from La Niña to El Niño (SVS14646).webm. NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio - NASA/GSFC/AMA/Kathleen Gaeta Greer, KBR Wyle Services, LLC/Jefferson Beck, NASA/GSFC/Greg Shirah, NASA/GSFC/Atousa Saberi / Wikimedia Commo commons.wikimedia.org

Scientists are observing an unprecedented El Niño event that is rapidly raising global temperatures, with 2026 and 2027 almost certainly exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark above preindustrial levels, according to Scientific American.

The Paris climate agreement aimed to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, with 2 degrees Celsius being a clear red line to avoid crossing.

In France, temperatures reached 43 degrees Celsius (109 degrees Fahrenheit) on Tuesday, prompting the Louvre to close two hours early due to the intense heat.

The polar vortex, a band of strong winds circling the North Pole, is contributing to extreme weather patterns, with track temperatures reaching 57 degrees Celsius, adding to the challenges in racing events.

Above-average rainfall is expected in parts of the United States, including the West Coast, central and northern Rockies, and parts of Texas, while smaller pockets of wetter weather are anticipated in southern Florida and the Northeast.

NASA researchers discovered an organism, Incendiamoeba cascadensis, or the fire amoeba, that can reproduce at temperatures up to 145 degrees Fahrenheit (63 degrees Celsius), setting a new record for the upper temperature limit for all known eukaryotes.

The fire amoeba stops reproducing above 145 degrees Fahrenheit but remains active, moving around to search for food at up to 147 degrees Fahrenheit (64 Celsius).

Temperatures in August averaged 62.53 degrees Fahrenheit globally, with daytime maximum temperatures reaching 88.6 degrees Fahrenheit, both record highs according to Copernicus data and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

NOAA reported above-average nighttime temperatures across most of the contiguous U.S. This summer, with record high sea surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean as El Niño began to develop.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported that September 2026 was the second warmest on record, with the highest monthly average sea surface temperature for September over the extra-polar ocean.

Heatwaves and storms are being intensified by climate change, pushing temperatures higher and causing more rainfall, according to Al Jazeera.

What this adds

Background

What's confirmed

• Under the landmark 2015 Paris climate agreement, nearly 200 countries signed on to try to limit warming to no more than that amount, with two degrees C being a clear line that the world vowed not to cross.

What's still developing

• “This El Niño is growing so much faster than any other event,” Hausfather says.
• In the midst of an El Niño likely to be the strongest in living memory —perhaps even in the past 1,000 years—the massive pulse of heat being exhaled by the Pacific Ocean is sending global temperatures skyrocketing.
• “They are the first victims of the crisis we are facing,” he said, calling the fatalities a “tragic scourge” on a day when temperatures in some parts of the country climbed above about 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit).
• NASA-supported scientists have discovered an organism that lives at extreme temperatures previously thought impossible for complex life.
• Running until November 20, this global summit addresses escalating concerns over record-breaking temperatures and erratic weather patterns.
• Data from the recent UNEP report warns that global temperatures are dangerously close to breaching the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold.
• A team of researchers has found a new way to watch spacecraft heat shields change from the inside while they are exposed to extreme temperatures similar to atmospheric reentry.
• As said in the study published in npj Materials Degradation, they used in situ X-ray micro-computed tomography, known as micro-CT, researchers tracked the materials while they were heated to 1,652 degrees Fahrenheit (900 degrees Celsius).
• During a return to Earth, a spacecraft traveling at hypersonic speeds pushes through the atmosphere and exposes its heat shield to temperatures above 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit (1,650 degrees Celsius).
• At these temperatures, the samples began to decompose, allowing scientists to observe changes in their structure over several stages.
• It comes as rising global temperatures, extreme weather events and growing climate risks increase pressure on governments to turn climate commitments into concrete action.
• Scientists expect temperatures in September to also be above average, the NOAA report said, with significant potential for wildfires across parts of the Northwest and Southern U.S. Swain and other climate scientists say these record-breaking temperatures are not going away without cuts to fossil fuel emissions – the primary driver of climate change.

Sources

• Scientific Americanlink
• Warpbeatlink
• Al Jazeeralink
• NASAlink
• Prameyanewslink
• Dailygalaxylink
• Madhyamamonlinelink
• NPRlink
• WarpBeat — background on El Niño will push temperatures above 1.5 degrees C. Will we ever come back down? link
• WarpBeat — background on El Niño Sends Global Temperatures Above 1.5 Degrees C link
• NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio - NASA — video link