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El Niño Sends Global Temperatures Above 1.5 Degrees C
· Confirmed
In Short: In the midst of a record-breaking El Niño, global temperatures are expected to surpass the 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels threshold for the next two years.
The current El Niño event, one of the strongest in living memory, is pushing global temperatures to unprecedented levels, likely surpassing the 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels threshold for both 2026 and 2027.
Under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, nearly 200 countries committed to limiting global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, with 2 degrees Celsius being a clear line not to cross.
The rapid growth of this El Niño is causing concern among climate scientists. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist, wonders if the heat bomb released this year could fuel feedback loops that exacerbate global temperature rise.
Temperatures are soaring in parts of Europe, with France experiencing temperatures reaching 109 degrees Fahrenheit (43 degrees Celsius) on Monday, according to Météo-France.
In contrast, a cold blast has gripped the Northeastern United States, with temperatures off to a chilly start this week. Meteorologists predict this could be a sign of what’s to come.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported that September 2026 was the second warmest on record, with the highest monthly average sea surface temperature for September over the extra-polar ocean.
The polar vortex, a band of strong winds circling the North Pole, contributes to the extreme temperature variations observed globally.
While temperatures are cooling down in some areas, the impact of El Niño is expected to continue, with above-average rainfall anticipated for the West Coast, central and northern Rockies, and parts of Texas.
What this adds
The current El Niño event is one of the strongest ever recorded, raising concerns about the possibility of permanently breaching the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold.
The UNEP report suggests that the world will likely 'overshoot' the 1.5°C target of warming above preindustrial temperatures within the next few years.
Background
The current El Niño event is sending global temperatures soaring, likely surpassing the 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels threshold for the next two years.
What's confirmed
- In the midst of an El Niño likely to be the strongest in living memory —perhaps even in the past 1,000 years—the massive pulse of heat being exhaled by the Pacific Ocean is sending global temperatures skyrocketing.
- Under the landmark 2015 Paris climate agreement, nearly 200 countries signed on to try to limit warming to no more than that amount, with two degrees C being a clear line that the world vowed not to cross.
What's still developing
- “This El Niño is growing so much faster than any other event,” Hausfather says.
- See what temperatures and precipitation look like across the U.S.
- Grip levels were even worse than teams expected with cars sliding around as the world's most expensive road sweepers, as track temperatures of 57 degrees Celsius contributed to the difficulty level.
- When the Artemis 2 Orion crew capsule returns to Earth after flying around the moon, it will hit the discernible atmosphere some 75 miles above the Pacific Ocean at a blistering 24,000 mph, fast enough to fly from New York to London in less than 10 minutes.
- ( FYI: The data provided in these reports can be used to substantiate your Mains answer and create a broad understanding of the topic.) — A new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) suggests the world will likely “overshoot”, or temporarily breach, the 1.5°C target of warming above preindustrial temperatures within the next few years.
- Tuesday will see a warm day in the south with temperatures of up to 26C in places despite a chilly start and scattered showers.
- After a chilly start, sunshine will take over as morning clouds fade, and temperatures climb into the upper 60s.
- Breezes will increase thanks to a cold front, which will then push in colder air and drop temperatures beginning Thursday night.
- Temperatures in Europe on June 23, 2026. windy.com Europe is sweltering through an intense heat wave that is setting temperature records in the U.K. and France.