Home · Science · Nov 11 archive
El Niño will push temperatures above 1.5 degrees C. Will we ever come back down?
Confirmed
In Short: Both 2026 and 2027 are almost certain to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above average temperatures in preindustrial times, before humans dramatically increased fossil fuel use.
The latest Climate Bulletin by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported that September 2026 was the second warmest on record, with the highest monthly average sea surface temperature over the extra-polar ocean.
Western Europe experienced its joint-warmest September, tied with 2023, following its hottest summer ever recorded. The region saw unusually warm conditions, with most of Europe experiencing higher than average temperatures.
Amid strengthening El Niño conditions, global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in September 2026, marking the second consecutive month above this critical threshold.
The current El Niño is one of the strongest ever on record, with the Pacific Ocean exuding a massive pulse of heat that is driving global temperatures upward. This El Niño is growing faster than any other event, according to experts.
Both 2026 and 2027 are almost certain to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above average temperatures in preindustrial times, before humans dramatically increased fossil fuel use. The landmark 2015 Paris climate agreement aimed to limit warming to no more than 1.5°C, with 2°C being a clear line not to cross.
The impact of these extreme temperatures is evident in various regions. In France, temperatures reached 109 degrees Fahrenheit (43 degrees Celsius) during a heat wave, while some parts of the country saw temperatures climb above 104 degrees Fahrenheit (40 degrees Celsius).
The Arctic and Antarctic regions are also experiencing unusual warmth, with the Arctic sea ice extent at its lowest point on record. Lake Powell, a major reservoir in the United States, has seen water levels drop significantly due to snow drought and unusually warm temperatures.
In Europe, the heat wave has led to widespread electricity outages and fires. The Energy Ministry reported some overnight electricity outages and fires as a result of the soaring temperatures.
The polar vortex, a band of strong winds circling the North Pole, has also been affected, contributing to colder temperatures in some regions. The polar vortex typically influences weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere.
The El Niño event could potentially push global temperatures above the 1.5°C threshold permanently, as it fuels feedback loops that exacerbate global temperature rise.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that August 2026 tied the record for the world’s hottest month since records began, with global average temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time since November 2025.
Grip levels were even worse than teams expected at the Sepang circuit, with cars sliding around due to track temperatures of 57 degrees Celsius, contributing to the difficulty level.
What this adds
The Copernicus Climate Change Service and Scientific American confirm that September 2026 was the second warmest on record, with temperatures over 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This marks the second consecutive month above this critical threshold.
The current El Niño is one of the strongest ever recorded, potentially pushing global temperatures above the 1.5°C threshold permanently.
The impact of these extreme temperatures is evident in various regions, including Europe, where temperatures reached record highs and led to widespread electricity outages and fires.
The polar vortex has been affected, contributing to colder temperatures in some regions, while the Arctic and Antarctic regions are experiencing unusual warmth.
Background
Both 2026 and 2027 will almost certainly come in at more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above average temperatures in preindustrial times, before humans dramatically ramped up the burning of fossil fuels.
What's confirmed
- It was the second warmest September ever recorded and saw the highest monthly average sea surface temperature for September over the extra-polar ocean – between 60°S and 60°N, as reported in the latest Climate Bulletin by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
- In the midst of an El Niño likely to be the strongest in living memory —perhaps even in the past 1,000 years—the massive pulse of heat being exhaled by the Pacific Ocean is sending global temperatures skyrocketing.
What's still developing
- “What is so extraordinary, however, is the margin by which the [June] record will be broken.” In parts of France, temperatures reached 109 degrees F (43 degrees C) on Monday, according to Météo-France.
- Oliverio studies organisms called extremophiles, so named because they thrive in unusually harsh conditions, like high temperatures.
- It follows a spring and summer of persistent heat with five widespread heatwaves and 40 days of temperatures above 30C (86F), smashing the previous record of 34 days.
- See what temperatures and precipitation look like across the U.S.
- Temperatures across the I-95 corridor are off to a chilly start this week.
- Temperatures are cooling down, and playoff races are beginning to heat up!
- ( FYI: The data provided in these reports can be used to substantiate your Mains answer and create a broad understanding of the topic.) — A new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) suggests the world will likely “overshoot”, or temporarily breach, the 1.5°C target of warming above preindustrial temperatures within the next few years.
- Tuesday will see a warm day in the south with temperatures of up to 26C in places despite a chilly start and scattered showers.
- After a chilly start, sunshine will take over as morning clouds fade, and temperatures climb into the upper 60s.
- Breezes will increase thanks to a cold front, which will then push in colder air and drop temperatures beginning Thursday night.