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China's Q3 GDP Grows 4.5% Year-Over-Year
· Confirmed
In Short: China's exports jumped by 16.4% year-over-year in the first nine months, while imports expanded by 22.3%, marking a five-year high in foreign trade growth.
China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.5% year-over-year in the third quarter, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Monday. This growth rate is higher than the 4.3% recorded in the previous quarter and exceeded market expectations of 4.4% growth.
On a quarterly basis, the Chinese economy expanded by 1.2% in Q3, up from a 0.9% rise in Q2. This growth was stronger than the market forecast of 1.1%.
Retail sales in September rose by 1.1% year-over-year, while industrial output of above-scale enterprises increased by 5.5% year-over-year in the same period.
China's GDP growth for the first nine months of 2026 was 4.6%, aligning with the pre-set annual growth target.
China's exports jumped by 16.4% year-over-year in the first nine months, while imports expanded by 22.3%, marking a five-year high in foreign trade growth.
The National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the economy sustained steady development despite external uncertainties and internal challenges, with new growth drivers contributing more than 40% to economic growth.
China's Finance Ministry announced a combined $54 billion capital injection into state-owned insurers and banks to shore up balance sheets and sustain growth in a slowing economy.
Tourism-related rail services saw a 25.5% increase in tourist train services, with 19 million trips made by foreign nationals, up 33.4% year-over-year.
Despite the positive GDP growth, analysts noted that consumption's role in the economy is shrinking, with real per capita consumption increasing by 4.4% year-over-year in 2025, less than overall GDP growth.
China's railway operator expanded passenger services, including quiet carriages, pet transportation, and luggage assistance, handling a record 3.71 billion passenger trips in the first nine months of 2026.
The Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong high-speed railway handled 25.85 million cross-border passenger trips, an 11.8% increase, while the China-Laos Railway carried 265,000 cross-border trips, up 37.8%.
China's economic growth in the third quarter was driven by the manufacturing strength of high-tech and equipment sectors, robust external demand, and the strong drive from new and emerging industries.
Background
China's economy expanded by 4.5% year-over-year in the third quarter, surpassing market expectations.
What's confirmed
- China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.5% year-over-year (YoY) in the third quarter (Q3), compared to 4.3% in the previous reading, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Monday.
- On a quarterly basis, Chinese economy expanded by 1.2% in Q3, up from a rise 0.9% in Q2, stronger than the market expectations of 1.1%.
- The market consensus was for a 4.4% growth in the reported period.
- BEIJING – China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.5 percent year-on-year in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Monday.
What's still developing
- “The figure has highlighted China’s role as a stabilizer and locomotive of the global supply chain, and such position could be further strengthened in the fourth quarter, taking account of rising geopolitical tensions and external uncertainties,” Tian said.
- China inaugurated an air force support and training center in Laos on September 29, marking China’s third overseas military facility, as reported by Thediplomat.
- South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) also confirmed the growth rate, noting that the economy picked up pace from the 4.3% expansion recorded during the second quarter, which was the lowest quarterly growth rate since the end of 2022.
- China's investment in innovation-driven sectors held up well in the first three quarters of 2026, even as overall fixed-asset investment continued to contract, the official data showed.
- With exports climbing, China's trade surplus - the amount of goods and services it sells abroad compared to what it buys from other countries - is on track to overtake the record $1.2tn (£900bn) seen last year.
- China's economic growth picked up in the three months to the end of September, rebounding from a three-year low as the artificial intelligence (AI) boom helped boost exports.
- China's economy has struggling to shake off a long-running property slump, after years of overbuilding and excessive borrowing by private developers.
- ALSO READ: Domestic housing market enjoying gradual uptick Monday's data also showed that the services sector expanded 5.2 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters, with information transmission, software and IT services up 10.4 percent and leasing and business services up 12.3 percent.
- China will step up efforts to expand domestic demand, improve supply and make macro policies more effective to sustain the positive momentum of innovation-led and high-quality development, the official said.
- In September, growth picked up to 5.5 percent from 5.2 percent in August.
- ALSO READ: Draft revision aims to better streamline China tech exports The bureau noted that the economy continued to expand despite headwinds in the first three quarters, with new growth drivers gaining momentum and key indicators showing signs of improvement.
- Tian Yun, a Beijing-based veteran economist, told the Global Times that China’s resilient production and relatively rapid export growth have played an important role in boosting the economy in the third quarter, especially in the manufacturing of high-tech products related to artificial intelligence (AI).