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China’s economy expands 4.5% in third quarter
· Confirmed
In Short: China's economy expanded by 4.5% year-over-year in the third quarter, surpassing market expectations.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Monday, China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.5% year-over-year in the third quarter, compared to 4.3% in the previous quarter, as reported by FXStreet.
South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) also confirmed the growth rate, noting that the economy picked up pace from the 4.3% expansion recorded during the second quarter, which was the lowest quarterly growth rate since the end of 2022.
FXStreet reported that the economy expanded by 1.2% on a quarterly basis in Q3, up from a rise of 0.9% in Q2, stronger than the market expectations of 1.1%. In contrast, the South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) did not specify the quarterly growth rate but noted the overall year-on-year economic growth for the first three quarters of the year came in at 4.6%.
Reuters, cited by WHTC and WKZO, reported that the third-quarter GDP growth rate beat the forecast for 4.4% growth in a Reuters poll, and improved from the more-than-three-year low of 4.3% in the April-to-June period.
China Daily (China) reported that China's gross domestic product expanded by 4.6% to reach 107.11 trillion yuan ($16 trillion) in the first nine months of 2026, aligning with the figures provided by FXStreet and Global Times (China).
The National Bureau of Statistics also reported that China's value-added industrial output rose 5.5% year-on-year in September, and retail sales increased 1.1% year-on-year in the same period, as reported by China Daily (China).
FXStreet noted that the market consensus was for a 4.4% growth in the reported period, and that the robust industrial output and retail sales figures indicate a strong economic performance.
FXStreet also highlighted that the disconnect between robust industrial output and weak domestic demand remains a key challenge for policymakers seeking to rebalance the economy.
Despite the positive GDP growth, analysts noted that consumption's role in the economy is shrinking, with real per capita consumption increasing 4.4% year-over-year in 2025, less than overall GDP growth.
China's Finance Ministry will lead a combined $54 billion capital injection into state-owned insurers and banks as Beijing moves to shore up balance sheets and sustain growth in a slowing economy, according to Bloomberg.
China inaugurated an air force support and training center in Laos on September 29, marking China’s third overseas military facility, as reported by Thediplomat.
All outlets agreed that China's GDP growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations, with the economy expanding by 4.5% year-over-year and 4.6% for the first three quarters of 2026.
What's confirmed
- The third-quarter gross domestic product growth rate, released by the Nation.al Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, beat the forecast for 4.4% growth in a Reuters poll, and improved from the more-than-three-year low of 4.3% in the April-to-June period.
What's still developing
- For January-September, the economy grew 4.6%, within the range of the government’s annual growth target of 4.5%-5.0%.
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