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US 10-Year Treasury Yield Surges to 2007 High
Confirmed
In Short: The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007, topping 5%, as oil prices surged more than 3%, reviving inflation worries.
Investors are watching if the calm lasts. The last time the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5% was October 2023, according to Reuters.
The 10-year Treasury note closed at a high yield of 4.8%, a level not seen in nearly three years and more than 60 basis points above estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), while the 2-year Treasury yield is at a near 2-year high of 4.4%.
The 10-year yield’s rise was its sharpest one-day jump since April 9, 2025, a week after Trump’s tariffs began roiling global markets, according to Dow Jones data.
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, signaling a more challenging period ahead for the economy.
The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007, topping 5%, as oil prices surged more than 3%, reviving inflation worries.
The US Dollar strengthened, supported by rising US yields and rate-hike expectations, leading to a slide in growth-sensitive currencies like the New Zealand Dollar.
The 10-year Treasury yield spiked by 13 basis points this morning to 5.10%, the highest since June 2007, having therewith broken through the 5% ceiling it had gotten stuck on and bounced against for two weeks.
The 30-year Treasury yield spiked by 9 basis points to 5.39% at the moment, the highest since July 2004, having edged past the 5.37% high on September 10, and past the 5.35% high in June 2007.
The purpose of these buyback auctions is to push down long-term Treasury yields, but the $6 billion cap at face value is the same as at the last buyback auction of this type held on September 11, after which yields spiked further, which was not the purpose.
Rising yields typically pressure high-growth stocks because much of their appeal lies in expectations for future profits whose value diminishes as discount rates climb.
The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) was last up more than 17% since its low for the year in late March, giving it a year-to-date gain of over 8% - even with Friday's pullback of nearly 1%.
Rising benchmark yields tend to put pressure on equity valuations, as companies and consumers will face higher borrowing costs.
What this adds
The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007, surpassing 5%, amid strong job data and persistent inflation concerns. This event adds to the ongoing narrative of economic resilience and rising inflation pressures.
The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007, surpassing 5%, amid strong job data and persistent inflation concerns. This event adds to the ongoing narrative of economic resilience and rising inflation pressures.
The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007, surpassing 5%, amid strong job data and persistent inflation concerns. This event adds to the ongoing narrative of economic resilience and rising inflation pressures.
Background
The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007, surpassing 5%, amid rising inflation and oil prices.
The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to its highest level since 2007, surpassing 5%, driven by rising oil prices and concerns about inflation. The yield reached 5.13% on Wednesday, its highest level since 2007, according to NBC News.
What's confirmed
- The 10-year Treasury note closed at a high yield of 4.8%, a level not seen in nearly three years and more than 60 basis points above estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), while the 2-year Treasury yield is at a near 2-year high of 4.4%.
What's still developing
- "The double headwinds of rising bond yields and oil prices are now testing the market's resilience, but stocks have not lost their key pillar of support, which is fast-rising earnings," said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global strategist-investment strategy at Edward Jones.
- Treasury and overseas government bond yields over the past few weeks, the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab sits just less than 3% below its August 13 record high, as the promise of AI-driven profit growth and economic resilience prompts investors to buy the dips — and perhaps limits the impulse to rotate into bonds.
- If rates remain this high above projections, it would add an additional $2.3 trillion to the debt over the next decade.
- Last month, the 30-year bond reached a 19-year record yield of 5.3% and remains nearly that high despite the Treasury Department’s August announcement to increase the size of its buyback program.
- Rising rates, in addition to being caused by high debt, feed into it.
- Higher debt can also slow economic growth, which would boost debt further.
- One of the primary drivers of Wednesday’s rise in bond yields was the release of new economic data that revealed rising inflation.
- Treasury bonds jumped Wednesday and oil prices rose, sending stocks tumbling as investors braced for the prospect of future Fed rate hikes.
- Rising yields intensified pressure on equities, particularly growth and technology stocks.
- Without intervention, Dickens said, higher prices could be here to stay.
- PROVIDENCE, Rhode Island, May 18 - Investors are warning that lofty U.S. stock markets have not yet priced in the risk of rocketing inflation and are vulnerable to a sharp spike in bond yields.
- On September 10, the European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points, citing inflationary pressures from the ongoing conflict.