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EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Trades near 180.50 after breaking above nine-day EMA
Confirmed
In Short: Moves in Asian trade have been modest but clearly visible, with the yen the session's underperformer after Japan August inflation data undershot forecasts across the board, and the Australian dollar the stronger performer following Governor Bullock's comments.
The EUR/JPY cross is maintaining a bearish near-term bias, trading just above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 179.83, according to FXStreet and TradingKey.
A break below the nine-day EMA would strengthen the bearish bias and could push the currency pair towards the region around 177.40, followed by an 11-month low of 175.70, recorded in November 2025.
In the Asian session on Tuesday, AUD/USD was trading above 0.7200, near its highest level since May 14, while USD/JPY rebounded from a six-month low below 153.00 to trade above 154.00.
USD/JPY has ticked higher as traders price a chance the Bank of Japan sounds less hawkish in its outlook today, while AUD/USD has firmed on the view that Bullock's remark confirms another RBA hike at the September 28-29 meeting.
Neither move has been dramatic, but the divergence gives a clean read on how each central bank's near-term messaging is being priced heading into their respective decisions.
What this adds
The divergence in performance between the AUD/USD and USD/JPY in Asian trade highlights the impact of central bank messaging on near-term positioning.
Background
Oil prices have risen above $100 per barrel, pushing diesel and gasoline prices to record highs, which could impact the economy and consumer spending.
The British Pound (GBP) weakened against the US Dollar (USD) as the US Dollar strengthened amid expectations of a US interest rate hike.
What's confirmed
- The EUR/JPY cross is keeping a bearish near-term bias as it holds below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while clinging just above the nine-day EMA.
- This configuration suggests the currency cross is consolidating under medium-term trend resistance, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.32 hinting at still-soft momentum and limiting the scope for an immediate bullish reversal unless price can reclaim the 50-day EMA.
- The EUR/JPY cross may pull back and test the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 179.83.
- A break below the short-term price average would strengthen the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the currency cross to navigate the region around 177.40, followed by nearly an 11-month low of 175.70, recorded in November 2025.
What's still developing
- USD/JPY rebounds from the six-month low it touched below 153.00 earlier in the day and trades above 154.00 in the second half of the day.
- The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.
- Near-Term GBP/EUR Forecast: ECB Decision Takes Centre Stage Looking ahead, attention is firmly on the ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday.
- Markets have been positioned for a hawkish ECB, particularly with Eurozone inflation still well above target.
- Bullock told the committee that upside inflation risks flagged in the RBA's August Statement on Monetary Policy are now materialising, pointing to the Middle East conflict, the AI boom and extreme weather events as sources of upward pressure on energy, agricultural and technology-related prices.
- Taken together, the two moves offer a clean, if modest, illustration of how central bank messaging is shaping near-term positioning in Asia today.
- Moves have been modest but clearly visible in Asian trade, with the yen the session's underperformer after Japan August inflation data undershot forecasts across the board, and the Australian dollar the stronger performer following Governor Bullock's comments to a parliamentary committee.
- Japan's national consumer price data for August, released a few minutes into the session, undershot forecasts across every measure the market watches.
- The core reading, which excludes fresh food, printed at 1.7%, below the 1.8% forecast and down from July's 1.8%.
- The core-core measure, which strips out both fresh food and energy and is the gauge the Bank of Japan watches most closely for underlying price trends, came in at 1.7%, well short of the 2.0% expected and down from 1.8% in July.
Sources
- FXStreetlink
- TradingKeylink
- Fxstreetlink
- Currencynewslink
- Investinglivelink
- WarpBeat — background on Aud usd price forecast holds above amid retreating usd sma holds the key link
- WarpBeat — background on Pound Sterling Price News & Forecast: GBP/USD weakens to around 1.3470 on Wednesday link
- DailyForex — video link