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EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Trades near 180.50 after breaking above nine-day EMA

1:08 PM ETConfirmed

Business Desk

In Short: The EUR/JPY cross trades near 180.50, holding below the 50-day EMA and showing a bearish near-term bias.

The EUR/JPY cross is trading near 180.50, holding below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and clinging just above the nine-day EMA, indicating a bearish near-term bias.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 43.32, suggesting still-soft momentum and limiting the scope for an immediate bullish reversal unless the price can reclaim the 50-day EMA.

A break below the nine-day EMA of 179.83 could strengthen the bearish bias, potentially pushing the currency cross to navigate the region around 177.40, followed by an 11-month low of 175.70, recorded in November 2025.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross could rise toward the 50-day EMA of 182.65, but the current configuration suggests consolidation under medium-term trend resistance.

The broader trend remains bearish as the pair holds below the 50-day EMA, with the RSI hovering near 33, hinting at persistent downside pressure but not yet an extreme oversold condition.

The USD/JPY pair has rebounded from a six-month low, trading above 154.00, while AUD/USD sits above 0.7200, near its highest level since May 14.

The US diesel crack spread recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00, reflecting the impact of rising oil prices.

Markets are positioning for a hawkish ECB, particularly with Eurozone inflation still well above target, and attention is firmly on the ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday.

Japan's August inflation data undershot forecasts across the board, with the core reading at 1.7%, below the 1.8% forecast, and the core-core measure at 1.7%, well short of the 2.0% expected.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) trades marginally higher against the US Dollar (USD) at around 0.5727 during the European trading session, despite the US Dollar Index (DXY) being positive.

Bitcoin is trading above $85,000, holding firm after a 6% surge on Friday, linked to US financial watchdogs' efforts to structure crypto assets under existing rules following the CLARITY Act's failure to advance.

The USD Index is up 0.1% to near 100.31, amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver more interest rate hikes this year.

Background

What's confirmed

• The EUR/JPY cross is keeping a bearish near-term bias as it holds below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while clinging just above the nine-day EMA.
• This configuration suggests the currency cross is consolidating under medium-term trend resistance, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.32 hinting at still-soft momentum and limiting the scope for an immediate bullish reversal unless price can reclaim the 50-day EMA.
• The EUR/JPY cross may pull back and test the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 179.83.
• A break below the short-term price average would strengthen the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the currency cross to navigate the region around 177.40, followed by nearly an 11-month low of 175.70, recorded in November 2025.
• Financial markets are in a strange position as we move to the final weeks of Q3, uncertainty and volatility continue to grip markets, but the oil price is falling; and European and US stocks are poised to open higher later on Monday.
• AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Monday as the US Dollar stalls its modest pullback from the highest level since late July amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties.

What's still developing

• USD/JPY rebounds from the six-month low it touched below 153.00 earlier in the day and trades above 154.00 in the second half of the day.
• Bullock told the committee that upside inflation risks flagged in the RBA's August Statement on Monetary Policy are now materialising, pointing to the Middle East conflict, the AI boom and extreme weather events as sources of upward pressure on energy, agricultural and technology-related prices.
• Taken together, the two moves offer a clean, if modest, illustration of how central bank messaging is shaping near-term positioning in Asia today.
• Moves have been modest but clearly visible in Asian trade, with the yen the session's underperformer after Japan August inflation data undershot forecasts across the board, and the Australian dollar the stronger performer following Governor Bullock's comments to a parliamentary committee.
• USD/JPY has ticked higher as traders price a chance the Bank of Japan sounds less hawkish in its outlook today even if it delivers the widely expected rate hike, while AUD/USD has firmed on the view that Bullock's remark that upside inflation risks flagged in August are now materialising all but confirms another RBA hike at the September 28-29 meeting.
• Neither move has been dramatic, but the divergence gives a clean read on how each central bank's near-term messaging is being priced heading into their respective decisions.
• The core reading, which excludes fresh food, printed at 1.7%, below the 1.8% forecast and down from July's 1.8%.
• The core-core measure, which strips out both fresh food and energy and is the gauge the Bank of Japan watches most closely for underlying price trends, came in at 1.7%, well short of the 2.0% expected and down from 1.8% in July.
• Zcash is trading above $1,500 after more than 40% gains last week, driven by institutional inflows and broader crypto market recovery.
• EUR/JPY extends its gains for the second consecutive day, trading around 180.40 during European hours on Monday.
• (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.
• ) The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today.

Sources

• TradingKeylink
• Fxstreetlink
• Investinglivelink
• Exchangerateslink
• FXStreetlink
• Fxstreetlink
• Currencynewslink
• FXStreetlink
• WarpBeat — background on Aud usd price forecast holds above amid retreating usd sma holds the key link
• WarpBeat — background on Pound Sterling Price News & Forecast: GBP/USD weakens to around 1.3470 on Wednesday link
• DailyForex — video link