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Aud usd price forecast holds above amid retreating usd sma holds the key
Confirmed
In Short: Oil prices have risen above $100 per barrel, pushing diesel and gasoline prices to record highs, which could impact the economy and consumer spending.
Oil prices have risen above $100 per barrel, pushing diesel and gasoline prices to record highs, according to reports. The U.S. average diesel price hit $6.301 per gallon, while gasoline prices jumped to an average of $4.355 per gallon, according to GasBuddy data. These record-high prices could do significant damage to the economy and consumer spending, as diesel powers freight and heavy equipment, raising the cost of making and delivering everyday goods, analysts at JPMorgan said.
The Trump Administration is looking to downplay the price spikes, seeing them as only temporary. However, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth acknowledged that the market buffers have now been 'played out' and oil prices could rise further over the coming months. Wirth stated, 'It's harder to envision a scenario where prices soften and quickly,'.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data held at 3.4% year on year in August, matching both July's reading and market expectations, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.4%, a marked pick-up from the 0.1% gain the month before. Relatedly, the U.S. average diesel price hit $6.301 per gallon, while gasoline prices jumped to an average of $4.355 per gallon, according to GasBuddy data.
From a technical perspective, spot prices climb back above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-September upswing after showing some resilience below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The ATR of 0.0044 suggests low volatility, which may limit significant price movements in the short term. The predicted daily closing price for AUD/USD is 0.7064, with a range of 0.7050 to 0.7078, and the weekly forecast expects a closing price of 0.7080, with a range of 0.7060 to 0.7100.
What's confirmed
- Oil prices have risen above $100 per barrel, pushing diesel and gasoline prices to record highs, according to reports. The U.S. average diesel price hit $6.301 per gallon, while gasoline prices jumped to an average of $4.355 per gallon, according to GasBuddy data. These record-high prices could do significant damage to the economy and consumer spending, as diesel powers freight and heavy equipment, raising the cost of making and delivering everyday goods, analysts at JPMorgan said.
- The Trump Administration is looking to downplay the price spikes, seeing them as only temporary. However, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth acknowledged that the market buffers have now been 'played out' and oil prices could rise further over the coming months. Wirth stated, 'It's harder to envision a scenario where prices soften and quickly,'.
- Meanwhile, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data held at 3.4% year on year in August, matching both July's reading and market expectations, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.4%, a marked pick-up from the 0.1% gain the month before. Relatedly, the U.S. average diesel price hit $6.301 per gallon, while gasoline prices jumped to an average of $4.355 per gallon, according to GasBuddy data.
- From a technical perspective, spot prices climb back above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-September upswing after showing some resilience below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The ATR of 0.0044 suggests low volatility, which may limit significant price movements in the short term. The predicted daily closing price for AUD/USD is 0.7064, with a range of 0.7050 to 0.7078, and the weekly forecast expects a closing price of 0.7080, with a range of 0.7060 to 0.7100.
What's still developing
- Prices would “drop like a rock” when the Iran war ends, U.S. President Donald Trump said, but he appears to have acknowledged that there may be no respite before the mid-term elections in early November.
- “The prices in the prior administration were this high anyway,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said at a G-20 event in Houston earlier this week.
- Related: Russia Extends Diesel Export Ban Through October At the end of last week, diesel prices in the U.S.
- Spot prices stick to intraday gains through the first half of the European session and currently trade just above the 0.7100 mark, up 0.30% for the day.
- However, the Fed's hawkish outlook, signaling one more rate hike this year, along with inflation risks stemming from higher oil prices, could act as a tailwind for US bond yields.
- USD/JPY is trading around 153.70 on Friday, down for the day after briefly spiking above 154.50 following the US inflation release.