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ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 19, 2026
Confirmed
In Short: Putin signed a decree on September 17 placing 16 Russian companies under the temporary management of L.E.V., including subsidiaries of French and Swiss firms.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reported on September 17 that intelligence suggests Russia plans to conduct drone and missile strikes against NATO states supporting Ukraine, aiming to portray these attacks as accidental.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on September 18 that Russian authorities have no plans for a covert mobilization after the September 18-20 State Duma elections.
Russian military officials have been attempting to open foreign bank accounts and move assets abroad, while encouraging relatives to leave Russia, amid concerns over a potential mobilization.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on September 19 that Russian forces have seized over 5,300 square kilometers and more than 220 settlements in Ukraine since the start of 2026, including over 670 square kilometers and 27 settlements in September alone.
ISW observed evidence suggesting Russian forces have seized only 147.7 square kilometers and 40 settlements, with a net loss of 20 settlements in 2026.
The MoD’s claims are part of a broader effort to shape Russian voters’ perceptions during the State Duma elections and to influence foreign governments supporting Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces have largely leveled the frontline along the Zherebets River north of Lyman, leaving Oskil, Krymky, and Studenok 22 to 37 kilometers from the current Russian forward line of own troops.
United Russia Party Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev emphasized Russia’s commitment to the war in Ukraine and the need for long-term militarization and economic sacrifices by Russian society.
Medvedev indicated that the post-war Russian defense industry should focus on stockpiling weapons to repel perceived threats from NATO and US allies in the Pacific.
What this adds
The Russian Central Bank has maintained its key interest rate at 14 percent, citing increased price pressures and temporarily reduced production capacity in certain sectors.
Background
Starting tomorrow, APOD will be accessible at science.nasa.gov/apod, marking a new chapter for the popular astronomy picture of the day feature.
The Russian Central Bank has maintained its key interest rate at 14 percent, citing increased price pressures and temporarily reduced production capacity in certain sectors.
What's confirmed
- Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
What's still developing
- Putin signed a decree on September 17 that places 16 Russian companies, including Russian subsidiaries of French companies Auchan and Lemana PRO (formerly Leroy Merlin) and of the Swiss company Nestlé, under the “temporary management” of L.E.V.
- [2] Russian officials have repeatedly denied that Russia will conduct involuntary reserve call-ups, likely in an effort to appease Russian society and avoid public upheaval or mass emigration such as occurred as a result of the 2022 involuntary reserve call-up.
- The Russian MoD’s claims were a response to a growing number of Ukrainian officials’ and Russian milbloggers’ reports about Ukrainian successes north of Lyman over the past months during Operation Vivaldi.[4] The Russian MoD claimed that the Russian Western Grouping of Forces (GoF) is successfully conducting combat operations in the Lyman direction and that Ukraine is spreading lies about this part of the battlefield.
- The Russian MoD implied that Russian forces have advanced much further northwest of Lyman, claiming that Russian forces are attacking to seize Oskil, Krymky, and Studenok.
- The post is part of the Kremlin’s wider effort to promote a narrative that Russian forces are maintaining the initiative across the battlefield and advancing at high rates in order to convince Russians to accept the ever-increasing costs associated with Putin’s war.
- The unusual MoD statement comes in the midst of Russian State Duma elections and shortly before the convening of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
- Including areas into which Russian forces have infiltrated but do not control brings the total Russian gains to 718.8 square kilometers this year, still far below the Russian MoD’s September 19 claims.
- The Russian MoD claimed that small Ukrainian assault groups are unsuccessfully trying to penetrate Russian lines in the area.
- Ukrainian military officials have recently definitively disproven Russian President Vladimir Putin’s September 1 claim that Russian forces had seized Svyatohirsk, and the town is currently 25 kilometers from the assessed Russian FLOT.[5] Similarly, Russian forces have conducted limited infiltrations into Lyman but have failed to consolidate any of those positions.
- The Russian MoD’s September 19 post was anomalous, as the MoD does not typically offer claimed statistics about Russian advances at apparently random moments or highlight the alleged successes of each GoF apropos of nothing.
- The Ukrainian General Staff and Special Operations Forces (SSO) reported on September 9 that Ukrainian forces struck the Novy Urengoy Gas Condensate Treatment Plant and the Purovsky Gas Processing Plant in Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (roughly 2,840 and 2,780 kilometers from the Ukrainian border respectively) — Ukraine’s farthest strikes thus far in the war.[1] The SSO noted that the Novy Urengoy Gas Condensate Treatment Plant’s annual capacity is 19.5 million tons, and the Purovsky Gas Processing Plant’s annual capacity is 13.4 million tons.
- Medvedev also denied that Russia will conduct a mobilization, despite growing indications that the Kremlin is setting conditions for mobilization following the September State Duma elections.[4] Russian President Vladimir Putin described the United Russia Party as the war party tasked with executing Putin’s ideological aims on August 22.[5] Medvedev is using his position as the United Russia Chairperson to reaffirm the United Russia Party’s pro-war platform and to position the party as the leader of a pro-war and ultranationalist informal Russian state ideology.