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ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 13, 2026
Confirmed
In Short: The Russian Central Bank has maintained its key interest rate at 14 percent, citing increased price pressures and temporarily reduced production capacity in certain sectors.
The Russian Central Bank announced on September 11 that it would keep the key interest rate at 14 percent, a decision made after reducing the rate 10 times over the past 18 months. The Central Bank noted that price pressure has intensified, with growth acceleration between five and six percent due to decreased production capacity in certain sectors.
According to reports, the Russian Central Bank and its Chairwoman, Elvira Nabiullina, are advocating for a more cautious monetary policy in response to rising inflationary pressures.
Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War reported that European security officials had been traveling to Poland from Ukraine via the Yahodyn border crossing, and that the Ukrainian Central Monitoring Group evacuated a diplomatic train 15 minutes before Russian forces struck a locomotive at the Polish border.
Ukrzaliznytsia, the Ukrainian national railway company, stated that it is likely the target of the Russian strike was the train with European officials on board, which had departed earlier than planned due to a drone threat.
What's confirmed
- The Russian Central Bank announced on September 11 that it would keep the key interest rate at 14 percent, a decision made after reducing the rate 10 times over the past 18 months. The Central Bank noted that price pressure has intensified, with growth acceleration between five and six percent due to decreased production capacity in certain sectors.
- According to reports, the Russian Central Bank and its Chairwoman, Elvira Nabiullina, are advocating for a more cautious monetary policy in response to rising inflationary pressures.
- Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War reported that European security officials had been traveling to Poland from Ukraine via the Yahodyn border crossing, and that the Ukrainian Central Monitoring Group evacuated a diplomatic train 15 minutes before Russian forces struck a locomotive at the Polish border.
- Ukrzaliznytsia, the Ukrainian national railway company, stated that it is likely the target of the Russian strike was the train with European officials on board, which had departed earlier than planned due to a drone threat.
What's still developing
- We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting.
- Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.