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Tarik Skubal Enters Free Agency With Big Contract Projections
· Confirmed
In Short: Tarik Skubal, a two-time Cy Young Award winner, is set to begin free-agent meetings next week, with projections suggesting he could sign an eight-year, $355 million deal.
Tarik Skubal (53947759924) (cropped).
Scott Boras speaks on Tarik Skubal's free agency, how motivated the Mets are in pursuit. SNY
Tarik Skubal, a two-time Cy Young Award winner, is set to begin free-agent meetings next week, with projections suggesting he could sign an eight-year, $355 million deal.
According to ESPN, industry insiders project Skubal's average contract to be eight years and $355 million, with an average annual value (AAV) of $44.6 million.
Jeff Passan of ESPN reported, 'The number will be huge. Bear in mind that Skubal turns 30 in November and never before has a pitcher age 30 or older received more than Stephen Strasburg's $245 million (on a seven-year deal) in free agency.'
Skubal's performance in the 2026 season was exceptional, posting a 2.61 ERA with 70 strikeouts over 62 innings in 10 starts with the Dodgers after being acquired in a trade with the Detroit Tigers.
The usual suspects, including the Dodgers and Mets, are expected to be at the forefront of Skubal's bidding war. The Blue Jays, ranked fifth in payroll at $276,327,620, are also interested but face a tricky free agency period.
The Dodgers have already shown what they offer on an organizational level, and Skubal's performance in the postseason, including a 2.45 ERA and 14 strikeouts over 11 innings across two starts, has further solidified his value.
The Blue Jays, Cubs, and Padres are also in the mix, with the Blue Jays having a payroll that could support a significant contract.
Skubal's free agency is expected to be one of the most closely watched in recent years, with the possibility of breaking pitcher contract records.
The story of this market is threefold: Tarik Skubal is the clear top free agent, with a strong chance to break some pitcher contract records.
The Dodgers have already shown their commitment to Skubal, with the ability to retain De Paula about to pay dividends as the pair become teammates.
What this adds
The Blue Jays, despite their strong payroll, face a tricky free agency period and may not be able to match the offers from the Dodgers and Mets.
The lockout deadline adds urgency to Skubal's free agency, potentially leading to quicker negotiations and signings.
What's confirmed
- So it should come as no surprise that the Skubal sweepstakes are already underway, with meetings with interested teams set to begin soon.
- Skubal is facing a surprisingly tricky free agency.
What's still developing
- The New York Yankees are eyeing an upgrade at third base given the prolonged struggles of Ryan McMahon, and free agent Alec Bohm may be a potential target for GM Brian Cashman, according to the New York Post.
- He spent three full months with the team, which served as a free-agent audition for both sides.
- 11: Passan's perfect move for top contenders: Skubal has no interest in a shorter-term, higher-dollar deal, which could disadvantage the Dodgers.
- In addition, Jon Heyman reported Wednesday that the Blue Jays will soon meet with Skubal, joining the Mets, Dodgers, Padres and potentially other clubs.
- Skubal (10-7) allowed three hits, struck out nine and walked one as he gained his second win against Cincinnati in seven days.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers clinched their 14th consecutive playoff berth with a 4-1 win over the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night behind Tarik Skubal's seven shutout innings and home runs by Kyle Tucker and Teoscar Hernandez.
- MLB’s free agent period is normally slower than those in the NFL and NBA with major signings sometimes dragging into the next calendar year.
- According to StatMuse, Skubal has fanned the second-most batters since October 2, 2023, just behind Toronto ace Dylan Cease.
- Tarik Skubal was sensational, as he struck out nine over seven scoreless innings.
- Projected contract/QO: eight years, $352 million (44 AAV), not eligible for QO As the playoffs began, I polled 27 industry insiders about Skubal's contract and got an average projection of eight years, $355 million (44.6 AAV), with 59% of projections landing just above the all-time pitcher guaranteed money record of $325 million (by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, over 12 years) and the big, round number of $400 million.
- As covered in that panel piece, the usual suspects are believed to be at the front of the line for Skubal: The Dodgers and Mets are the primary bidders, the Tigers are monitoring for a discount, the Yankees are thinking about it (and then trading from their pitching stockpile if they land Skubal), and the Angels, White Sox, and Padres are the sleepers with ownership changes behind the interest.
- Skubal is well-positioned to sign a record-breaking contract early this winter, as agent Scott Boras will look to cash in on his prized free agent prior to the looming lockout that is expected to begin on December 1st when the CBA expires.
Sources
- Bleacher Reportlink
- CBS Sportslink
- Dodgers Nationlink
- ESPN La Crosse 105.5link
- Espnlink
- Fansidedlink
- Fox Newslink
- MLB Trade Rumorslink
- Sbnationlink
- Foxsportslink
- Bleacherreportlink
- Newbaseballmedialink
- Espnlink
- Ocregisterlink
- Justbaseballlink
- Heavylink
- SNY — video link
- SNY — video link
- Yahoo! Sports MLB — video link
- Foul Territory — video link
- Locked On Dodgers — video link