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Fossil Fuel Emissions Drop as High Oil Prices Take Toll
Confirmed
In Short: Fossil fuel emissions are down 0.4 percent, largely due to high oil prices.
Fossil fuel emissions are on a downward trend, dropping by 0.4 percent this year, according to a new analysis by the Global Carbon Project led by Corinne Le Quéré at the University of East Anglia.
Between 2019 and 2025, 59 countries managed to cut their emissions despite economic growth, even as global emissions increased by 0.8 percent annually.
The decline in emissions this year featured a 1.9 percent drop in oil emissions, a smaller 0.3 percent drop in emissions from natural gas use, and a 0.6 percent increase in coal emissions.
Electric vehicles can only account for about 20 percent of the decline in oil emissions, with the bulk of the reduction attributed to high fuel prices.
The researchers estimated that without the growth of electric vehicles and renewable energy, the increase in emissions would have been 1.9 percent per year.
Annual greenhouse gas emissions have increased steadily, but the current decline offers a rare glimpse of progress.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has published reports on energy-related CO2 emissions since 2010, and monthly forecasts since 2009.
The Trump administration's rollback of regulations on climate-warming emissions from coal and gas-fired power plants has been criticized by environmental groups.
Wisconsin is among a coalition of 25 states, cities, and counties suing the Trump administration for rolling back rules that limit heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions from coal and gas-fired power plants.
"However, those who contributed least to climate change face the greatest danger," Guterres added, urging action on three fronts: cutting emissions, protecting communities, and closing legal gaps.
What this adds
The decline in emissions is attributed to high oil prices rather than a long-term reversal in emissions trends.
The analysis by the Global Carbon Project includes emissions from land-use changes, such as deforestation, which are expected to reach 43.3 billion metric tons in 2026.
What's confirmed
- The growth of electric vehicles and renewable energy is offsetting most of the growth of emissions, but not all of it.
What's still developing
- Bucking recent trends, fossil fuel emissions look to be down 0.4 percent.
- Annual greenhouse gas emissions are much less variable, having increased fairly steadily, but many complicating factors can still muddy the picture.
- This team works on the Global Carbon Project, which compiles stats on fossil fuel use and things like deforestation to track carbon emissions globally and by country.
- This describes the scale reported in those titles, not a long-term reversal in emissions.
- Oil prices are so high that CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels are dropping The war in Iran has put 2026 on track for a dip in annual fossil-fuel carbon emissions By Jackie Flynn Mogensen edited by Claire Cameron The U.S. war with Iran has raised fossil fuel prices so much that the resulting drop in oil demand has put the world on track to see a rare dip in carbon emissions from these sources in 2026.
- Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are expected to decline slightly in 2026, offering a promising sign that the world's transition to cleaner energy is beginning to make a measurable difference.
- When emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) are included, total global CO 2 emissions are expected to reach 43.3 billion metric tons in 2026, compared with 42.8 billion metric tons in 2025.
- Environment Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin said earlier this month that the agency was readying the policy and said some oil and gas producers said the Biden-era rules on emissions were too expensive and unworkable.