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Midterm Elections See Record $11.9 Billion Spending
Confirmed
In Short: OpenSecrets predicts that total spending in the 2026 midterm elections will reach a record $11.9 billion, according to an analysis of Federal Election Commission data.
The surge in spending is largely driven by outside spending, which is expected to reach $3.9 billion, an 85% increase from previous cycles.
According to OpenSecrets, the trend of increasing election spending since the Supreme Court's 2010 decision on campaign finance law continues.
Super PACs are a major contributor to the increased spending, with Kalshi, Polymarket, and the Coalition for Prediction Markets collectively spending over $3 million on lobbying and campaign contributions.
Tech mogul Elon Musk is the top political donor, contributing more than $445 million to Republican candidates, PACs, and outside spending organizations.
Conservative groups outspent liberal ones on outside spending by about $360 million, while Democratic candidates were expected to outspend Republican candidates by roughly $800 million.
Kevin Wagner, a political science professor at Florida Atlantic University, noted that both sides see certain districts as winnable, fueling the increased spending.
What this adds
The analysis by OpenSecrets highlights the significant role of super PACs and dark money in driving the record spending.
The report also underscores the importance of state-level races, with spending directed at state legislators across all 50 states.
Background
Texas Democrats secured a historic victory in the midterm elections, capturing the governor's mansion for the first time in over three decades and winning a U.S. Senate seat since 1988.
The midterm elections also saw a Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate, according to media projections, signaling a shift in power dynamics.
What's confirmed
- The surge in spending is largely driven by outside spending, which is expected to reach $3.9 billion, an 85% increase from previous cycles.
- According to OpenSecrets, the trend of increasing election spending since the Supreme Court's 2010 decision on campaign finance law continues.
- Super PACs are a major contributor to the increased spending, with Kalshi, Polymarket, and the Coalition for Prediction Markets collectively spending over $3 million on lobbying and campaign contributions.
- Tech mogul Elon Musk is the top political donor, contributing more than $445 million to Republican candidates, PACs, and outside spending organizations.
- Conservative groups outspent liberal ones on outside spending by about $360 million, while Democratic candidates were expected to outspend Republican candidates by roughly $800 million.
- Kevin Wagner, a political science professor at Florida Atlantic University, noted that both sides see certain districts as winnable, fueling the increased spending.
What's still developing
- Continuing a trend that has defined federal elections since the Supreme Court upended campaign finance law in 2010, OpenSecrets’ analysis of Federal Election Commission disclosure data shows that when all the reporting is in, we will have another record midterm election, with total spending reaching $11.9 billion.
- Follow the money to state legislators in all 50 states.
- Search by client, firm, industry, or issue to see who is spending to shape policy.
- With less than three weeks until the Nov. 3 general election, outside spending in federal races has grown rapidly, now topping $2.4 billion, according to an OpenSecrets analysis of Federal Election Commission data.
- Between Sept. 21 and Oct. 7, such spending in House races alone grew by nearly $190 million, according to an OpenSecrets analysis of Federal Election Commission data on independent expenditures.
- In addition to its political spending in states, OpenSecrets found the industry remains committed to federal lobbying, with Kalshi alone spending nearly $1 million in the first half of the year.