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Fossil Fuel Emissions Projected to Decline in 2026

Updated 4:44 PM ET · 9:47 AM ETConfirmedShare via:          

Science Desk

In Short: According to new projections, higher fuel prices will decrease global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning in 2026 by about 0.16 gigatons from 2025, marking the first decline since the 2% drop in 2020 due to the pandemic.

Emissions from natural gas are set to decline by 0.3%, while coal emissions are on track to rise by 0.6%, as soaring LNG prices prompt higher coal-fired power generation in Asia.

The dip in fossil fuel carbon is offset by a rise in emissions from land-use change, such as deforestation, pushing total CO2 emissions up to 43.3 billion tonnes this year.

According to new projections, higher fuel prices will decrease global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning in 2026 by about 0.16 gigatons from 2025, marking the first decline since the 2% drop in 2020 due to the pandemic.

The Global Carbon Project, which comprises more than 130 scientists from 21 countries, projects fossil fuel CO2 emissions to fall by 0.4%, partly because of growing solar and wind power generation and disruptions linked to the Iran conflict.

The study, released at the COP31 climate meeting in Antalya, Turkey, said carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2026 was expected to be 38.2 billion tonnes, 0.4% lower than the 38.4 billion tonnes measured for 2025.

The expected marginal decline in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels this year would be the first since 2020, when the pandemic had resulted in a 2% drop, the biggest year-on-year decline measured so far.

Global renewable electricity capacity is projected to increase by nearly 4,800 gigawatts between 2026 and 2031, according to the International Energy Agency, as concerns about energy security and volatile fossil fuel prices accelerate investment in solar, wind and other domestic power resources.

The Global Carbon Project's latest report concludes that this is likely a temporary decrease, rather than a sign that emissions from gas, coal, and oil have reached a definitive peak.

The analysis found national fossil fuel plans would result in 460% more coal, 83% more gas, and 29% more oil production in 2030 than the world can afford to burn on its increasingly miniscule 1.5 C carbon budget.

"Whatever happens in the power sector has an outsized influence on what happens for emissions worldwide," said Mr Fulghum, emphasizing the critical role of the energy sector in global emissions trends.

What this adds

Background

What's confirmed

• The 2026 Global Carbon Budget projects 38.2 billion tons of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year, down by 0.4% from last year, amid a slump in emissions from oil as a result of the Hormuz trade and energy price shock, the scientists behind the project said.
• According to the latest Global Carbon Budget from the Global Carbon Project, fossil fuel CO 2 emissions are projected to fall by 0.4%, partly because of growing solar and wind power generation and disruptions linked to the Iran conflict.
• Emissions from fossil fuels and cement are forecast to increase yet again to 38.1bn tonnes of CO2, according to the Global Carbon Budget team, which comprises more than 130 scientists from 21 countries.

What's still developing

• About half of those losses are attributable to emissions from “carbon majors,” 122 fossil fuel companies and cement producers, the study concluded.
• IEEFA Issue Hub: Impact of Middle East Crisis on Global Energy Markets - Updated: August 2026 Global energy markets that depend on imported fossil fuels are again exposed to volatile commodity prices and geopolitical risk.
• The crisis could also pull the energy transition in two directions: accelerating renewable energy deployment to strengthen energy security, while prompting short-term measures that increase reliance on fossil fuels.
• She writes for energy websites and covers several other industries, as well as writing… In 2024, New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed a law requiring large fossil fuel polluters to pay up to $75 billion in damages.
• A study published in 2025 in the journal Nature linked more than 200 severe heat waves directly to carbon pollution from the world’s largest fossil fuel producers.
• That has sent fossil fuel prices surging — and with them, the potential for profit.
• Amidst a global chorus calling for urgent action on climate change, major fossil fuel producers are doubling down on their plans to expand production, defying climate science and “throwing humanity’s future into question”, a UN report revealed on Wednesday.
• The report, compiled by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in collaboration with academic partners, scrutinized the plans of the 20 largest fossil fuel-producing countries, responsible for a staggering 84% of global carbon emissions and roughly three-quarters of the world’s fossil fuel consumption in 2021.
• It means that, altogether, total emissions from all human activities are expected to reach 42.2bn tonnes CO2 in 2025 - down from the 42.4bn in 2024, albeit marginally.
• What is clearer, the team say, is that emissions have grown more slowly over the past decade - 0.3% per year - compared to the previous decade's 1.9% per year.
• It adds weight to the idea that global emissions may be nearing a peak – even though it's hard to say exactly when that might come.
• The United States Environmental Protection Agency said Monday it's repealing most of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions limits for fossil fuel power plants, specifically coal and natural gas facilities, set during the Biden administration.

Sources

• BBClink
• Carbon Brieflink
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• France24link
• Ncaslink
• Science Newslink
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• The Indian Expresslink
• Sciencedailylink
• Insideclimatenewslink
• Trtworldlink
• Oilpricelink
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• Most Viral Today — video link
• The World of Statistics — video link