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Fossil CO₂ emissions projected to decrease in 2026 amid clean energy growth and Iran conflict
Confirmed
In Short: Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are expected to decline slightly in 2026, partly due to disruptions caused by the Iran conflict and the expansion of clean energy.
Fossil Fuel Emissions Set for Slight Fall in 2026, Researchers Say. World News Checked
At the COP31 climate meeting in Antalya, Turkey, on Tuesday, the Global Carbon Project released a study projecting that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will decrease by 0.4% in 2026, to 38.2 billion tonnes, compared to 38.4 billion tonnes in 2025.
The projected decline is attributed to a slump in emissions from oil due to the Hormuz trade and energy price shock, as well as growing solar and wind power generation.
According to the Global Carbon Budget, emissions from natural gas are set to decline by 0.3%, while emissions from coal are expected to rise by 0.6% from last year, as soaring LNG prices prompt many countries, especially in Asia, to increase coal-fired power generation.
The dip in fossil fuel carbon emissions is partially offset by a rise in emissions from land-use change, such as deforestation, pushing total CO2 emissions up to a projected 43.3 billion tonnes this year, from 42.8 billion in 2025.
The expected marginal decline in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels this year would be the first since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic had resulted in a 2% drop, the biggest year-on-year decline measured so far.
Global renewable electricity capacity is projected to increase by nearly 4,800 gigawatts between 2026 and 2031, according to the International Energy Agency, as concerns about energy security and volatile fossil fuel prices accelerate investment in solar, wind, and other domestic power resources.
Researchers caution that the transition to cleaner energy is not happening quickly enough to guarantee a lasting reduction in fossil fuel emissions, with the energy transition currently not big enough to get emissions heading downward yet.
The analysis found national fossil fuel plans would result in 460% more coal, 83% more gas, and 29% more oil production in 2030 than the world can afford to burn on its increasingly miniscule 1.5 C carbon budget.
The report, compiled by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in collaboration with academic partners, scrutinized the plans of the 20 largest fossil fuel-producing countries, responsible for 84% of global carbon emissions and roughly three-quarters of the world’s fossil fuel consumption in 2021.
What this adds
The study emphasizes the need for a more rapid transition to cleaner energy sources to ensure a sustainable reduction in fossil fuel emissions.
What's confirmed
- At the COP31 climate meeting in Antalya, Turkey, on Tuesday, the Global Carbon Project released a study projecting that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will decrease by 0.4% in 2026, to 38.2 billion tonnes, compared to 38.4 billion tonnes in 2025.
- The projected decline is attributed to a slump in emissions from oil due to the Hormuz trade and energy price shock, as well as growing solar and wind power generation.
- According to the Global Carbon Budget, emissions from natural gas are set to decline by 0.3%, while emissions from coal are expected to rise by 0.6% from last year, as soaring LNG prices prompt many countries, especially in Asia, to increase coal-fired power generation.
- The dip in fossil fuel carbon emissions is partially offset by a rise in emissions from land-use change, such as deforestation, pushing total CO2 emissions up to a projected 43.3 billion tonnes this year, from 42.8 billion in 2025.
- The expected marginal decline in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels this year would be the first since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic had resulted in a 2% drop, the biggest year-on-year decline measured so far.
- Global renewable electricity capacity is projected to increase by nearly 4,800 gigawatts between 2026 and 2031, according to the International Energy Agency, as concerns about energy security and volatile fossil fuel prices accelerate investment in solar, wind, and other domestic power resources.
- Researchers caution that the transition to cleaner energy is not happening quickly enough to guarantee a lasting reduction in fossil fuel emissions, with the energy transition currently not big enough to get emissions heading downward yet.
- The analysis found national fossil fuel plans would result in 460% more coal, 83% more gas, and 29% more oil production in 2030 than the world can afford to burn on its increasingly miniscule 1.5 C carbon budget.
- The report, compiled by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in collaboration with academic partners, scrutinized the plans of the 20 largest fossil fuel-producing countries, responsible for 84% of global carbon emissions and roughly three-quarters of the world’s fossil fuel consumption in 2021.
What's still developing
- About half of those losses are attributable to emissions from “carbon majors,” 122 fossil fuel companies and cement producers, the study concluded.
- IEEFA Issue Hub: Impact of Middle East Crisis on Global Energy Markets - Updated: August 2026 Global energy markets that depend on imported fossil fuels are again exposed to volatile commodity prices and geopolitical risk.
- The crisis could also pull the energy transition in two directions: accelerating renewable energy deployment to strengthen energy security, while prompting short-term measures that increase reliance on fossil fuels.
- She writes for energy websites and covers several other industries, as well as writing… In 2024, New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed a law requiring large fossil fuel polluters to pay up to $75 billion in damages.
- A study published in 2025 in the journal Nature linked more than 200 severe heat waves directly to carbon pollution from the world’s largest fossil fuel producers.
- That has sent fossil fuel prices surging — and with them, the potential for profit.
- Specifically, 38.2 billion tons will be emitted from burning fossil fuels.
- Amidst a global chorus calling for urgent action on climate change, major fossil fuel producers are doubling down on their plans to expand production, defying climate science and “throwing humanity’s future into question”, a UN report revealed on Wednesday.
Sources
- Carbon Brieflink
- Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.comlink
- Euronews.comlink
- Science Newslink
- The Indian Expresslink
- Oilandgas360link
- Sciencedailylink
- Insideclimatenewslink
- Ieefalink
- Trtworldlink
- Oilpricelink
- Gristlink
- Mundoamericalink
- Abcnewslink
- Ourworldindatalink
- Healthpolicy-Watchlink
- World News Checked — video link
- Most Viral Today — video link
- ABC News (Australia) — video link