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Senate Candidates Outperform Polls in Key Races
Confirmed
In Short: In the 2026 Senate races, several candidates are outperforming their poll numbers, including Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan and Maine's Susan Collins.
In the 2026 Senate races, several candidates are outperforming their poll numbers, according to Insideelections. Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan and Maine's Susan Collins are among those who have consistently outperformed polls in previous elections, suggesting they may do so again this year.
In Michigan, Republican Mike Rogers is currently polling at around 45 percent, which is three points better than his polling average at this point in 2024. In the final days of the 2024 race, six polls overestimated Rogers' opponent's support, while half a dozen final polls accurately predicted Rogers' 48 percent support.
Maine's Susan Collins, a Republican, has a history of outperforming polls. In 2014, she won an uncompetitive race against Shenna Bellows, now Maine’s secretary of state, despite polls showing her at around 60 percent in October, while she ultimately won with 68.5 percent. In 2018, polls generally underestimated her support, but the final polls showed movement in her favor.
In the 2024 Michigan Senate race, Republican Ken Paxton also outperformed polls. Final polls undershot his support by nearly 10 points, with Paxton earning 53.4 percent statewide in 2022 and 64 percent in May. This trend is not unique to Paxton; in the 2018 race, Brown trailed in polls throughout the campaign, but polls overestimated his opponent's support, while Brown won with 53 percent.
In the 2026 Michigan Senate race, Abdul El-Sayed, a Democrat, outperformed polls in the primary, winning about 51 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for Rep. Haley Stevens. Obama's support for El-Sayed in campaign ads may have contributed to his performance.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., is predicting Republicans will outperform polls and retain their narrow Senate majority. Thune emphasized the importance of turnout, stating, “Turnout's going to be a big part of whether or not we're successful or not. And in every state I've been in, that is a clear-eyed focus of our candidates.”
In Brazil, right-wing candidates are also outperforming polls. Bolsonaro won 47 percent of the vote in the first round, compared with just over 45 percent for Lula, with the remainder of the votes distributed among several conservative candidates. This trend suggests a growing list of countries in Latin America are handing victories to far-right candidates.
The dynamics of a nominee’s past races are not necessarily predictive of the future, but looking back on their wins (and near-losses) provides important context for Senate nominees’ polling positions in 2026, revealing some surprising names who consistently outperform their polls.
What this adds
The NEET Result 2026 declared that over 11.21 lakh candidates qualified for undergraduate medical and allied courses, with women candidates outperforming men, constituting over fifty-eight percent of qualifiers.
What's confirmed
- In the 2026 Senate races, several candidates are outperforming their poll numbers, according to Insideelections. Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan and Maine's Susan Collins are among those who have consistently outperformed polls in previous elections, suggesting they may do so again this year.
- In Michigan, Republican Mike Rogers is currently polling at around 45 percent, which is three points better than his polling average at this point in 2024. In the final days of the 2024 race, six polls overestimated Rogers' opponent's support, while half a dozen final polls accurately predicted Rogers' 48 percent support.
- Maine's Susan Collins, a Republican, has a history of outperforming polls. In 2014, she won an uncompetitive race against Shenna Bellows, now Maine’s secretary of state, despite polls showing her at around 60 percent in October, while she ultimately won with 68.5 percent. In 2018, polls generally underestimated her support, but the final polls showed movement in her favor.
- In the 2024 Michigan Senate race, Republican Ken Paxton also outperformed polls. Final polls undershot his support by nearly 10 points, with Paxton earning 53.4 percent statewide in 2022 and 64 percent in May. This trend is not unique to Paxton; in the 2018 race, Brown trailed in polls throughout the campaign, but polls overestimated his opponent's support, while Brown won with 53 percent.
- In the 2026 Michigan Senate race, Abdul El-Sayed, a Democrat, outperformed polls in the primary, winning about 51 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for Rep. Haley Stevens. Obama's support for El-Sayed in campaign ads may have contributed to his performance.
- In Brazil, right-wing candidates are also outperforming polls. Bolsonaro won 47 percent of the vote in the first round, compared with just over 45 percent for Lula, with the remainder of the votes distributed among several conservative candidates. This trend suggests a growing list of countries in Latin America are handing victories to far-right candidates.
- The dynamics of a nominee’s past races are not necessarily predictive of the future, but looking back on their wins (and near-losses) provides important context for Senate nominees’ polling positions in 2026, revealing some surprising names who consistently outperform their polls.
What's still developing
- But the result ended up being surprisingly close, with four of six final election polls overestimating El-Sayed’s 48.5-percent support.
- Like in 2020, Collins has trailed her Democratic opponent in virtually every single public poll.
- Nearly twenty lakh candidates appeared for the examination conducted across India and abroad.
- NEET Result 2026 declared: NTA releases Re-NEET scorecards at neet.nta.nic.in; over 11.21 lakh qualify, 138 candidates score above 690 Bigger or Better: BEL’s biggest shareholder is also its biggest customer – and its rule-maker.
- Women candidates continued to outperform men, constituting over fifty-eight percent of qualifiers.
- Over eleven lakh candidates qualified for undergraduate medical and allied courses this year.
- "And I think that we're gonna outperform the polls for sure come Election Day."
- In addition to Bolsonaro’s success, even as his father, former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, serves a 27-year prison sentence for his involvement in a coup plot following his loss to Lula in 2022, right-wing candidates also racked up wins in legislative races across the country.
- The vote on Sunday will decide whether Brazil joins a growing list of countries across Latin America that have handed victories to far-right candidates promising closer ties with the United States, a hard hand on crime and insecurity, and market-friendly economic policies.
- Obama taped two dozen ads last week for Democratic candidates for governor and Senate that will be released in the coming days and weeks, in addition to more campaign stops soon to be announced.
- DETROIT (AP) — Former President Barack Obama will campaign alongside Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed in Detroit later this month, lending his support to the progressive nominee after a bruising Democratic primary exposed divisions within the party.
- He appeared earlier this year in a campaign ad with Iowa Senate candidate Josh Turek and campaigned in Texas with Senate candidate James Talarico and the candidate for governor, Gina Hinojosa.