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Has Russia’s Influence in Africa Peaked?
· Confirmed
In Short: Only around 22 African leaders are attending the third Russia-Africa Summit in Moscow, reflecting growing concerns over Russia's influence in Africa.
The third Russia-Africa Summit kicked off in Moscow on Wednesday, but it has drawn low attendance from African leaders, with only around 22 in attendance. This is a stark contrast to the high expectations set by Moscow, which had hoped for a more robust showing of support from the continent.
According to Foreign Policy, around 3,000 African nationals from countries such as Kenya, Ghana, and South Africa are estimated to be fighting on the front lines for Russia in Ukraine, often in the most dangerous combat positions. This has sparked demands from citizens for their leaders to take action against forced recruitment into Russia’s war.
The summit, which is expected to bring together more than 2,000 participants, including diplomats and business leaders, highlights the growing controversy surrounding Russia’s influence in Africa. The low participation suggests that Russia’s sway across the continent is becoming increasingly contentious.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine urged China, India, Brazil, South Africa, and other Group of 20 (G20) countries to use their influence over Moscow to help end Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Zelensky noted, “Unfortunately, there is a lack of a consistently strong position from China and India, Brazil and South Africa, the G20 countries and the Global South. Each of these countries has influence over Russia and can help make peace a reality.”
The Centre for Innovation and Technology, a Zimbabwean media advocacy group, expressed hope that African leaders would raise concerns about the forced recruitment of their citizens into Russia’s war in Ukraine during the summit. The group stated, “Families want to know if their relatives are alive, where they are and when those who died will come home for burial. We hope our leaders will raise this with their Russian counterparts in Moscow.”
Despite the controversy, Russian President Vladimir Putin maintained a positive outlook, stating, “We are witnessing a multipolar world becoming a reality, a trend that is both objective and irreversible.” Putin’s comments reflect Russia’s continued efforts to expand its influence in Africa, even as it faces criticism for its actions in Ukraine.
The African Youth Survey 2026, conducted by the Johannesburg-based research firm, revealed a complex picture of Russia’s influence in Africa. While 54% of young Africans surveyed say Russia exercises some or a lot of influence in their country, a ten-percentage-point rise from 44% in 2024, 83% of those who recognize Russian influence view it positively. This positive perception is most pronounced in Burkina Faso (95%), Congo Brazzaville (69%), and Chad (65%).
The survey also found that Russia now stands ahead of France, whose perceived influence has fallen to 47%. However, the survey’s findings highlight a disconnect between the positive perception of Russia among young Africans and the growing controversy surrounding its influence in the continent.
The Robert Lansing Institute’s analysis suggests that Russia’s model of influence in Africa, built around military juntas, mercenary structures, coercion, disinformation, and resource extraction, may be reaching operational limits. The withdrawal of the Russian-controlled Africa Corps from key northern positions such as Kidal exposed deep structural weaknesses in Moscow’s African strategy, raising critical questions about the sustainability of Russian influence operations across the continent.
In brief, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia launched more than 2,200 drones, about 1,650 guided aerial bombs (KABs), and at least 38 missiles at Ukraine this week, according to Kyivpost. A significant share of the 38 missiles were ballistic.
The mixed signals from the summit and the survey underscore the complexity of Russia’s influence in Africa. While Russia continues to expand its presence, the low attendance at the summit and growing controversy suggest that its influence may be peaking.
Foreign Policy, 1099 14th St NW, Suite 500 East, Washington, D.C., 20005.
What this adds
The low attendance at the summit reflects growing concerns over Russia's influence in Africa, despite positive perceptions among young Africans.
What's confirmed
- The third Russia-Africa Summit kicked off in Moscow on Wednesday, but it has drawn low attendance from African leaders, with only around 22 in attendance. This is a stark contrast to the high expectations set by Moscow, which had hoped for a more robust showing of support from the continent.
- According to Foreign Policy, around 3,000 African nationals from countries such as Kenya, Ghana, and South Africa are estimated to be fighting on the front lines for Russia in Ukraine, often in the most dangerous combat positions. This has sparked demands from citizens for their leaders to take action against forced recruitment into Russia’s war.
- The summit, which is expected to bring together more than 2,000 participants, including diplomats and business leaders, highlights the growing controversy surrounding Russia’s influence in Africa. The low participation suggests that Russia’s sway across the continent is becoming increasingly contentious.
- Despite the controversy, Russian President Vladimir Putin maintained a positive outlook, stating, “We are witnessing a multipolar world becoming a reality, a trend that is both objective and irreversible.” Putin’s comments reflect Russia’s continued efforts to expand its influence in Africa, even as it faces criticism for its actions in Ukraine.
- The African Youth Survey 2026, conducted by the Johannesburg-based research firm, revealed a complex picture of Russia’s influence in Africa. While 54% of young Africans surveyed say Russia exercises some or a lot of influence in their country, a ten-percentage-point rise from 44% in 2024, 83% of those who recognize Russian influence view it positively. This positive perception is most pronounced in Burkina Faso (95%), Congo Brazzaville (69%), and Chad (65%).
- The survey also found that Russia now stands ahead of France, whose perceived influence has fallen to 47%. However, the survey’s findings highlight a disconnect between the positive perception of Russia among young Africans and the growing controversy surrounding its influence in the continent.
- The Robert Lansing Institute’s analysis suggests that Russia’s model of influence in Africa, built around military juntas, mercenary structures, coercion, disinformation, and resource extraction, may be reaching operational limits. The withdrawal of the Russian-controlled Africa Corps from key northern positions such as Kidal exposed deep structural weaknesses in Moscow’s African strategy, raising critical questions about the sustainability of Russian influence operations across the continent.
- In brief, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia launched more than 2,200 drones, about 1,650 guided aerial bombs (KABs), and at least 38 missiles at Ukraine this week, according to Kyivpost. A significant share of the 38 missiles were ballistic.
- The mixed signals from the summit and the survey underscore the complexity of Russia’s influence in Africa. While Russia continues to expand its presence, the low attendance at the summit and growing controversy suggest that its influence may be peaking.
- Foreign Policy, 1099 14th St NW, Suite 500 East, Washington, D.C., 20005.
What's still developing
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- Russia is preparing another diplomatic and military offensive in Africa.
- Is Russia is losing the ability to act as Africa’s primary external security patron because its intelligence, military, and hybrid influence model is structurally incapable of stabilizing allied regimes.
- Russia successfully positioned itself after 2021 as an alternative to Western and French influence in the Sahel by presenting Wagner Group, and later the Africa Corps as decisive anti-jihadist security providers willing to fight without Western political conditions.
- Its capture in 2023 had been presented as proof of Russian military effectiveness; evidence that Wagner/Africa Corps succeeded where France failed; and a demonstration of Moscow’s rise as a dominant African security actor.
- Among those who identify Russia as influential, 83% describe that influence as very or somewhat positive.