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Four Scenarios for How the Midterms Could Go
· Confirmed
In Short: Four scenarios for the US midterm elections could reshape healthcare, pharma, and voting rights.
Political analysts and activists are preparing for a range of outcomes in the upcoming US midterm elections on November 3, with a focus on healthcare, pharma, and voting rights.
Political Wire notes that while a 'blue wave' is likely, translating it into a Democratic majority in the House and Senate is uncertain due to Republican structural advantages.
Jackson Potter, vice president of the Chicago Teachers Union, told Prospect that broader efforts are underway to prepare people for existential scenarios that could challenge the foundations of democracy.
The Chicago Teachers Union is organizing a week of direct action to engage corporate executives and volunteers in confronting power ahead of Election Day.
Attorney General Todd Blanche told reporters in Virginia that while he does not intend to improperly interfere with elections, he did not rule out federal involvement in a 'doomsday scenario.'
Blanche also told Rawstory and Common Dreams that there are scenarios where the Justice Department might block states from certifying elections, though he emphasized that it is not the DOJ's intention to interfere.
President Trump has suggested that if Republicans win the House and Senate, he would pay $5,000 to every American adult, a scenario that seems unlikely according to a poll by The Economist and YouGov.
The poll found that only 10% of respondents believed Trump would definitely pay $5,000, while 57% thought it unlikely.
Melanie D'Arrigo of Campaign for New York Health said Blanche's response to whether the DOJ would interfere in certification processes was a 'Yes,' indicating potential federal intervention.
Blanche told Common Dreams that while there are hypothetical 'doomsday' scenarios, he does not think it is proper to make conclusive statements about future actions.
Blanche has previously aligned with Trump's claims that the 2020 election was 'rigged,' and officials are discussing potential catalysts for federal intervention, including disruptions at polls and irregularities in the count.
Government lawyers told Common Dreams that extreme scenarios like foreign cyberattacks are being considered, and Trump's low approval ratings add to the uncertainty.
What this adds
Blanche's statements indicate a willingness to consider federal intervention in extreme scenarios, despite emphasizing non-interference.
What's confirmed
- Attorney General Todd Blanche said, “of course,” there are scenarios in which the Justice Department would block states from certifying elections.
- “Is there any scenario in which DOJ would weigh in on that certification process or try to block states from certifying?” a reporter asked.
- "So, I don’t think it’s proper to make any kind of conclusory statements about what’s going to happen in the future, because I have no idea what’s happening in the future." Blanche said he could not say there were no circumstances under which the DOJ would get involved.
- While it’s “never” the Justice Department ’s intention to “improperly interfere with elections or the state confirmation process or certification process,” he told reporters, “to say that there’s no circumstances that we would ever do that, of course, I’m not going to say that,” he said.
- Homeland Security “surveils, covertly infiltrates and interrogates the staff of nonprofits and churches conducting voter engagement” and had targeted nearly 150 such nonprofit groups as of July, according to court filings.
- The fears of voting rights groups who filed the lawsuit as well as the “public’s interest in safe elections, free from interference or intimidation, far exceed defendants’ purported interest in combating unlawful voting by non-U.S. citizens,” Martínez-Olguin wrote.
What's still developing
- We therefore assess three possible scenarios and what they mean for healthcare and pharma The US midterm elections take place on 3 November.
- The prospect of 240 million adults receiving a $5,000 payout seems like the ultimate ‘what if’ scenario for Wall Street, but President Trump appears to be adamant that it will happen should the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the Senate in the upcoming US midterms.
- “It’s not responsible for them to do that,” he said.
- They also include scenarios that the administration has claimed are already underway, such as “questions about qualified voters” and “voter confusion.” The DOJ has already acted on such claims in three states.
- The question is how far he may be willing to go: “Nobody knows what the president might do if the midterms don’t go his way, what Trump might say or what he might provoke,” one senior intelligence official who served in the first Trump White House told Klippenstein.
- Three administration officials have told investigative journalist Ken Klippenstein that the DOJ has several "contingency plans" that may result in unprecedented efforts at federal interference, many of which President Donald Trump and other administration officials have hinted at in the press.
- One government lawyer told Klippenstein that while there is no law allowing the federal government to suspend elections simply by alleging fraud, that doesn’t mean the administration won’t seek to find a legal justification: With the midterms just a week away and Republicans projected to do poorly, Trump has a veritable army of influencers online prepared to sow doubt about the election result.
- Dan Sullivan loses, arguing that the presence of another person with the same name on the ballot was part of a ploy to “confuse” voters.
- "You've got to stop it with that! You're not being a real person... We're not laying any groundwork for the president to do that. So the premise of your question is not true."
- With Trump’s approval rating hitting a record low.