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Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose in September as third-quarter GDP beats expectations
· Confirmed
In Short: Quartz cited the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which stated that the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.6% in September from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August.
According to Crypto News and Crypto, the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% between July and September, surpassing economists' expectations of 3.2% and improving from the previous quarter's 2.2% growth.
Fox Business reported that the Commerce Department announced the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.5% in September, marking a 3.6% increase from the same period last year.
Crypto News noted that despite the economic growth, Santiment reported Bitcoin’s transaction count and active addresses remained below their average weekday levels recorded between July and September.
Fox Business highlighted that the Federal Reserve policymakers are focused on the PCE headline figure as they try to bring inflation back to their long-run target of 2%, though they view core data as a better indicator of inflation.
The stronger economic performance was accompanied by inflation figures that showed consumer prices continued to rise in September, according to Fox Business and Crypto News.
Jai Kedia, a research fellow at the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, said he thinks a rate hike is the likely outcome given positive signs in the labor market and stubbornly high inflation.
The administration, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, has repeatedly characterized the rise in inflation as transitory and linked to the war with Iran, according to News.
Employers added just 29,000 jobs in September 2026, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as reported by Hcamag.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September 2026 for the first time in three years, citing higher prices, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached a 24-year high, as noted by Hcamag.
Gasoline prices increased 9.1% from the prior month in September and are up 34.2% on an annual basis, according to Fox Business.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was trading close to unchanged, in a range around 51,355 to 51,375, by midday in New York on Wednesday 30 September 2026, compared with Tuesday's close of 51,349.92, as reported by Bbntimes.
Fox Business noted that the probability of the Fed leaving the benchmark federal funds rate at its current target range of 3.75% to 4% fell from 77.9% on Tuesday to 58.5% on Wednesday following the September CPI inflation report.
What this adds
The reports from Crypto News and Hcamag provide additional context on the economic growth and inflation, but do not offer new insights into the underlying causes of the inflationary pressures.
What's confirmed
- Bitcoin price has reclaimed the $80,000 level after briefly falling below it earlier on Thursday, as fresh US economic data showed stronger than expected growth in the third quarter and persistent inflation in September.
- According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the country’s economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% between July and September, exceeding economists’ expectations of 3.2% and improving from the previous quarter’s 2.2% growth.
What's still developing
- It would also mean that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, long viewed as an inflation hawk, may be willing to risk the ire of President Donald Trump, who is threatening to halt trade with America’s key partners if the Fed doesn’t cut rates.
- Private companies created more jobs than expected in September, according to the latest figures.
- Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · 11:14 PM ET In Short: The surge in bond yields and the strong U.S.
- Investrade reported that the financial sector, along with real estate, consumer discretionary and materials, was down more than 6% in September going into the final session, while technology was the only sector with a clear gain.
- Figures for Wall Street in this article are intraday readings taken around midday New York time on 30 September 2026, while US markets were still open; the official closing level will be confirmed after the 16:00 ET bell.
- While remittance inflows have built an unprecedented foreign currency cushion, inflation and low private borrowing pose major tests for the government's record budget KATHMANDU: Nepal Rastra Bank published its report on the first month of fiscal year 2026/27 on September 18.
- Bessent defended his controversial bond-buyback program before Congress on September 15, clashing with Democrats over whether tariffs are driving inflation as the economy confronts 10-year Treasury yields topping 5 percent for the first time since 2007.
- Bessent is preparing talks with China on Iran's financial ties ahead of a Trump-Xi summit scheduled for late September, suggesting the Treasury's international negotiations will intensify.
- TradingKey - On September 10 Eastern Time, the three major US stock indices fell for the fourth consecutive trading day.
- "Chair Warsh was reluctant to provide strong signals at the FOMC meeting yesterday, a bullish tone on growth, dissents in favor of a hike and the message that financial conditions were not tight all point to a return to tightening in December and potentially one more interest rate hike in 2027, in our view."
- “Signals are pointing to broad inflationary pressure beyond one-off energy and tariff shocks,” said William Dickens, university distinguished professor emeritus of economics and public policy.
- The ADP National Employment Report showed 90,000 jobs added in September, as HRD America covered in its look at September's hiring rebound and its warning on retention.