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Democrats Lead in Key Pennsylvania House Races Amid Measles Outbreak
· Confirmed
In Short: In key Pennsylvania House races, Democrats hold significant leads, while the state grapples with a severe measles outbreak.
In key Pennsylvania House races, Democrats hold significant leads, according to recent polls. In the Northeastern Pennsylvania district, Josh Shapiro leads by 11 percentage points, while Democrats in other districts maintain 5-point advantages.
Former U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent, a Republican who represented the Lehigh Valley seat until it flipped blue in 2018, attributes Shapiro’s commanding performance to the compounded issues around former President Trump’s favorability dragging down GOP candidates.
Mercedes Vinsko, a 23-year-old law student from Shavertown, Luzerne County, expressed hope for a 'blue wave' in the midterms, emphasizing the need for Democrats to 'flood' Congress.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state polls find President Biden trailing former President Trump in several states, including Pennsylvania, but within each survey’s margin of error.
Pennsylvania is currently grappling with its worst measles outbreak in three decades, with more than 1,300 cases reported since April. The state reported 43 additional measles cases Friday, bringing the statewide total to 1,260 this year.
The outbreak has raised concerns about the politicization of health issues. HHS said a CDC 'disease detective' was expected to arrive in Pennsylvania this week to help contain the outbreak.
Legal experts have raised questions about the residency practices of Republican candidate Scott Presler, who has accused others of voter fraud. Presler’s use of his home as a base for out-of-state voters to cast Pennsylvania ballots has been scrutinized.
The PSBA, representing more than 5,000 public school directors and administrators in Pennsylvania, criticized Governor Josh Shapiro’s proposed overhaul of the state’s health code, placing schools in an 'untenable position between parents and public health authorities.'
What's confirmed
- In the Northeastern Pennsylvania district, Shapiro leads by 11 percentage points, the latest poll found. » READ MORE: Why Josh Shapiro put himself on the line for the midterms — but still won’t talk about 2028 Former U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent, a Republican who represented the Lehigh Valley seat until it flipped blue in 2018, said Shapiro’s commanding performance is “compounding” the issues around Trump’s favorability that are dragging down GOP candidates across the country.
What's still developing
- “I’m hoping a blue wave will trend in a better direction for America.” The 5-percentage-point leads held by Cognetti and Brooks in their congressional districts represent Democrats’ widest advantages heading into the final stretch of four battleground races in Pennsylvania, according to the poll.
- “The challenge for Pennsylvania Republicans is the governor’s race, … Trump’s approval rating, and just the overall midterm environment,” Dent said, calling it a “daunting” mix.
- Bonta helped lead a group of 24 attorneys general and Pennsylvania’s governor in suing over the rule.
- He even has attacked a homeless shelter in Pennsylvania for allegedly having 500 people registered to vote from there even though it has a 100-bed capacity. (“Imagine being confused by something this obvious. The homeless are also allowed to vote!” tweeted Daniel Pearson, a Philadelphia Inquirer editorial writer.) Now legal experts say that Presler’s use of his home as a base for out-of-state voters to cast Pennsylvania ballots raises questions about whether he committed the same acts of which he has accused others.
- Smucker of Pennsylvania, a top candidate to lead House Budget Committee Republicans in the next Congress, said Thursday that raising the cap on income subject to Social Security payroll taxes could be part of the solution to avoid having to cut benefits.
- "It was virtually unheard of for someone to reach childbearing age and not have been naturally infected with measles," the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia's noted last month.
- Congenital measles can lead to serious health issues for newborns, including brain inflammation and death, according to a recently published fact sheet from the American Academy of Pediatrics.
- “Independent voters break for Trump over Biden in Arizona (48%-38%), Michigan (44%-35%), Nevada (43%-37%), Pennsylvania (49%-33%), and North Carolina (41%-38%). However they break for Biden over Trump in Georgia (42%-38%) and Wisconsin (44%-41%),” Kimball noted.
- Measles is a highly contagious illness that can lead to the hospitalisation or death of a person, with up to nine out of 10 people who are not vaccinated likely to fall sick, the Australian Centre for Disease Control says.
- The current week’s data underscore that Pennsylvania’s outbreak remains very much active: of the 101 new indigenous measles cases reported nationally for the week ending Sep. 12, 76 were in Pennsylvania alone, with the state’s Middle Atlantic region accounting for 85 of the week’s total cases when combined with neighboring New York.
- Pennsylvania follows closely behind with 649 cases in 2026, compared to only 12 at this point in 2025.