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Brazil's Presidential Election: Lula Faces Tight Runoff Against Bolsonaro
· Confirmed
In Short: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro are set to face off in a runoff election after neither candidate secured an outright majority in the first round.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro are set to face off in a runoff election after neither candidate secured an outright majority in the first round, according to reports from the Buenos Aires Times (Argentina) and BBC (United Kingdom).
The Buenos Aires Times reported that Lula, despite economic strength, lost the first-round vote to Flávio Bolsonaro, 47 to 45 percent, and is now polling six points behind him. Meanwhile, the BBC noted that Bolsonaro has a thin lead over Lula, but the next president will be decided in the runoff round.
Both publications agree that the runoff election will determine whether Brazil remains one of the few leftist nations in the region or joins the ranks of right-wing governments friendly with the United States.
The race between Lula and Bolsonaro has tightened in recent days, with a CNT/MDA poll showing them nearly even, at 46.3 percent for Bolsonaro and 45 percent for Lula, according to Al Jazeera (Qatar).
Datafolha institute polls also show the candidates tied at 50 percent of valid votes, down from a 52-48 Bolsonaro advantage two weeks earlier, as reported by AFP.
Lula and Bolsonaro have taken different stances on key issues. Lula has promised to continue aligning Brazil with the broader “Global South” movement and its orientation toward China, while Bolsonaro has promised closer relations with the U.S. and vowed to resolve Brazil's crime woes and slash government spending.
Both candidates have been actively campaigning, with Lula planning visits to Rio de Janeiro's Copacabana Beach and Sao Paulo's Avenida Paulista, and Bolsonaro planning a visit to the house in Rio where his father recovered after being stabbed during his 2018 campaign.
Supporters of both candidates have taken to the streets, with Lula's supporters flooding the streets with protests and Bolsonaro's supporters rallying in support of his campaign.
The runoff election on October 25 will be closely watched, with nearly 159 million voters set to choose the next president of Brazil, along with electing 27 state governors, members of state legislatures, all 513 members of the lower house of Congress, and 54 of Brazil's 81 senators.
The political left has been jolted awake after the first-round results, launching an intense digital campaign to carry Lula to a fourth, non-consecutive term.
Both candidates have faced criticism and support from voters. Lula has accused Bolsonaro of encouraging a coup by “fascist fanatics,” while Bolsonaro has questioned why things are so expensive.
The runoff election will be a decisive moment for Brazil, with the outcome likely to shape the country's political and economic direction for years to come.
What this adds
The sources have not established a clear frontrunner for the runoff election, with polls showing a tight race between Lula and Bolsonaro.
What's confirmed
- "I am very happy with the real possibility that, three weeks from now, Brazil will give a definitive answer by choosing a modern government," he said, according to AFP.
- "He doesn't know what hunger is," Brazil's first working-class president said of Bolsonaro, who asked the incumbent: "Why are things so expensive?"
What's still developing
- Bolsonaro has styled himself as a moderate version of his firebrand father, who is serving 27 years for attempting a coup after his electoral loss to Lula in 2022.
- While in Brazil, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s chances of re-election are extremely slim despite what appears to be a situation of economic strength, in Argentina, President Javier Milei is still totally in the game as the economy stumbles on its way to a technical recession. t is fascinating to watch the Brazilian electoral process occurring just across the border, while comparing it to Argentina’s constant state of political and economic crisis.
- Lula said Wednesday he would not attend a debate scheduled to include Bolsonaro and two other candidates.
- "Tomorrow we start a new campaign," the 80-year-old said.
- The controversy followed reporting by The Guardian that the Trump administration had redirected money from the US State Department’s Human Rights and Democracy Fund toward conservative causes internationally, including a proposed $1 million grant related to opposition to Brazil’s Supreme Court.
- Speaking from São Paulo, Lula accused Bolsonaro of encouraging the coup by “fascist fanatics” and issued a decree directing the federal government to take control of security in the capital after local police failed to protect the houses of government.
- 6, 2021, supporters of defeated Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro tried to pull off their own overthrow of democracy on Sunday by storming the Congress, the Supreme Court, and the presidential palace.
- If Flávio Bolsonaro wins Brazil’s presidential run-off, he will likely roll back Lula’s deforestation regulations.
- Brazil’s climate agenda is often presented as a contest between environmental protection and economic development.
- "Nowadays, when you go to the market, your money is worth nothing." The acrimonious campaign -- largely based on fear-mongering -- showed just how deep polarization runs in Brazil.
- Lula "has been on the side of the poor," said cleaner Damiao da Silva.
- SAO PAULO, Brazil— About 125 million Brazilians voted Oct. 4 on machines that print no paper ballots.