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Strong Exports Stabilize China’s Economic Growth in Official Statistics
Confirmed
In Short: The economy expanded by 0.4%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, whereas analysts had predicted no growth.
China's economy grew by 4.5% in the third quarter, up from the previous period but below the 5% expansion recorded from January to March, according to official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.
With exports climbing, China's trade surplus is on track to overtake the record $1.2tn (£900bn) seen last year, according to the NBS.
The NBS stated that the economy 'sustained steady development against pressure' and showed 'momentum with new growth drivers and improving structure'.
The latest figure is at the bottom end of Beijing's annual growth target of 4.5%-5%, which analysts have said gives policymakers room to address the country's economic challenges.
China's economic growth picked up in the three months to the end of September, rebounding from a three-year low as the artificial intelligence (AI) boom helped boost exports.
While exports have helped offset weak spending at home, global trade tensions and uncertainty over AI investments are clouding its outlook.
Oxford Economics researcher Sheana Yue said manufacturing and high-tech exports have boosted China's growth, despite weak investment and domestic spending.
July's figure follows growth of 0.3% in June and zero growth in May.
Trade uncertainties and geopolitical issues have also made Chinese consumers more 'pessimistic' and unwilling to spend, according to the NBS.
For January-September, the economy grew 4.6%, within the range of the government’s annual growth target of 4.5%-5.0%.
Growth is expected to slow to 4.5% in 2026 from 5.0% last year, before easing further to 4.4% in 2027.
What this adds
The AI boom has been a significant factor in boosting China's exports and economic growth.
The trade surplus is expected to surpass the record set last year, reflecting the strength of China's export sector.
The economic growth rate of 4.5% is at the lower end of the government's target range, providing policymakers with some flexibility to address ongoing challenges.
What's confirmed
- The third-quarter gross domestic product growth rate, released by the Nation.al Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, beat the forecast for 4.4% growth in a Reuters poll, and improved from the more-than-three-year low of 4.3% in the April-to-June period.
What's still developing
- Economic Indicators • By Elise Gould • October 2, 2020 Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports an increase of 661,000 jobs in September, representing a notable slowdown in regaining the massive amount of jobs lost during the coronavirus pandemic.
- Using average monthly job growth over the year ending February 2020 as the counterfactual, the jobs deficit is easily over 12 million.
- The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in September after rising 0.4 percent in August."
- "While Democrats pretend to care about ‘affordability’ this administration has delivered tangible wins to make life more affordable for American families: President Trump signed the largest working-class tax cuts in history, cut the cost of prescription drugs, added more than one million private-sector jobs, locked in nearly 20 trade deals and will continue to put American workers first," Middleton added.
- This gives us information for our core task of keeping prices stable, which contributes to economic growth.
- The Guardian also quoted John Healey saying, "Britain’s economy is demonstrating a welcome resilience, despite serious global uncertainty," while warning that growth was "still fragile" and that the conflict in the Middle East has impacts at home from the cost of the weekly family shop to the cost of government borrowing.
- James Smith, a developed markets economist at ING, said, "The UK economy has performed much better than expected amid the fallout of the Iran war," while Liz McKeown added that services drove growth in July with computer programming making the largest contribution.
- In brief: Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine cost Poland an estimated €113.4 billion between 2022 and 2025, according to Statistics Poland.
- “High inflation caused a sharp rise in nominal wages, but the pace of real wage growth slowed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” he said, adding that real wages fell by 2% in 2022.
- The GDP growth rate for the first three quarters combined grew by 4.6%, which is still above the lower end of the growth target zone.
- Baghdad (IraqiNews.com) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a 16 percent contraction in Iraq’s real GDP in 2026, followed by a 19 percent growth in 2027, according to statistics from the October 2026 World Economic Outlook report.
- According to these predictions, Iraq is one of the region’s oil-exporting economies that will decline in 2026; the numbers show a 3.8 percent contraction for these oil exporters, followed by 7.4 percent growth in 2027.