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China's Exports Boost Economic Growth Amid Global Uncertainty
· Confirmed
In Short: The latest figure is at the bottom end of Beijing's annual growth target of 4.5%-5%, which analysts have said gives policymakers room to address the country's economic challenges.
China's economy grew by 4.5% in the third quarter, up from the previous period but below the 5% expansion recorded from January to March, according to official Chinese data. The growth was driven by a surge in exports, which helped offset weak domestic spending, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
The latest figure is at the bottom end of Beijing's annual growth target of 4.5%-5%, which analysts have said gives policymakers room to address the country's economic challenges. The economy expanded by 0.4%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, whereas analysts had predicted no growth.
With exports climbing, China's trade surplus is on track to overtake the record $1.2tn (£900bn) seen last year. This export boom has helped boost China's growth, despite weak investment and domestic spending, according to Oxford Economics researcher Sheana Yue.
The economy sustained steady development against pressure and showed momentum with new growth drivers and improving structure, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. However, trade uncertainties and geopolitical issues have made Chinese consumers more pessimistic and unwilling to spend, the bureau added.
The Canadian economy lost 41,700 jobs, according to Statistics Canada, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.4 percent. Meanwhile, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in September after rising 0.4 percent in August.
In brief: Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine cost Poland an estimated €113.4 billion between 2022 and 2025, according to Statistics Poland. High inflation caused a sharp rise in nominal wages, but the pace of real wage growth slowed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, leading to a 2% fall in real wages in 2022.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts a 16% contraction in Iraq’s real GDP in 2026, followed by a 19% growth in 2027. This prediction reflects the mixed economic performance of oil-exporting economies in the region, with a 3.8 percent contraction for these economies in 2026, followed by 7.4 percent growth in 2027.
The Guardian also quoted John Healey saying, “Britain’s economy is demonstrating a welcome resilience, despite serious global uncertainty,” while warning that growth was “still fragile” and that the conflict in the Middle East has impacts at home from the cost of the weekly family shop to the cost of government borrowing.
Background
While exports have helped offset weak domestic spending, global trade tensions and uncertainty over artificial intelligence investments are clouding China's economic outlook.
Oxford Economics researcher Sheana Yue highlighted that manufacturing and high-tech exports have boosted China's growth, despite weak investment and domestic spending.
What's confirmed
- The latest figure is at the bottom end of Beijing's annual growth target of 4.5%-5%, which analysts have said gives policymakers room to address the country's economic challenges.
- China's economic growth picked up in the three months to the end of September, rebounding from a three-year low as the artificial intelligence (AI) boom helped boost exports.
- While exports have helped offset weak spending at home, global trade tensions and uncertainty over AI investments are clouding its outlook.
- The third-quarter gross domestic product growth rate, released by the Nation.al Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, beat the forecast for 4.4% growth in a Reuters poll, and improved from the more-than-three-year low of 4.3% in the April-to-June period.
What's still developing
- July's figure follows growth of 0.3% in June and zero growth in May.
- Economic Indicators • By Elise Gould • October 2, 2020 Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports an increase of 661,000 jobs in September, representing a notable slowdown in regaining the massive amount of jobs lost during the coronavirus pandemic.
- Using average monthly job growth over the year ending February 2020 as the counterfactual, the jobs deficit is easily over 12 million.
- This gives us information for our core task of keeping prices stable, which contributes to economic growth.
- James Smith, a developed markets economist at ING, said, "The UK economy has performed much better than expected amid the fallout of the Iran war," while Liz McKeown added that services drove growth in July with computer programming making the largest contribution.
- * Growth is expected to slow to 4.5% in 2026 from 5.0% last year, before easing further to 4.4% in 2027.
- "The 0.2 percent growth in economic activity in the June 2026 quarter reflects mixed results, with increases in nine out of 16 industries," said Statistics New Zealand spokesperson Jason Attewell.
- Retail sales rose a better-than-expected 1.1% from a year earlier, accelerating from August’s 0.4% increase and marking the fastest growth since March.
- Presuming job growth were constant over the next decade, that projection implies the United States would add about 49,000 jobs per month, far more than the average 31,000 jobs added per month from August 2025 to July 2026.
- "While Democrats pretend to care about ‘affordability’ this administration has delivered tangible wins to make life more affordable for American families: President Trump signed the largest working-class tax cuts in history, cut the cost of prescription drugs, added more than one million private-sector jobs, locked in nearly 20 trade deals and will continue to put American workers first," Middleton added.