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China's GDP Grows 4.5% in Third Quarter
· Confirmed
In Short: China's economy expanded by 4.5% year-over-year in the third quarter, surpassing expectations.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Monday, the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.5% year-over-year in the third quarter, compared to 4.3% in the previous quarter.
On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded by 1.2%, up from a rise of 0.9% in the second quarter, exceeding market expectations of 1.1%. This marks a significant improvement from the more than three-year low of 4.3% recorded in the April-to-June period.
For the first three quarters of the year, China's GDP growth stood at 4.6%, within the government's annual growth target range of 4.5% to 5.0%. The economy generated about 107.11 trillion yuan ($15.94 trillion) in output during this period.
Analysts noted that while the economy showed robust industrial output and exports, domestic demand remained weak. This disconnect has emerged as a key challenge for policymakers seeking to rebalance the economy.
Beijing has recently introduced measures to support home buyers, steer cheaper credit into sectors such as infrastructure and technology, and allocated 550 billion yuan ($82.28 billion) in unused government debt quotas to ease local governments' financial strain.
The strategy of redirecting credit and resources from property towards high-tech industries has created a two-speed economy, where strong factory output and exports mask weak consumption and private investment.
China's trade surplus widened more than expected in September, with exports surging, likely intensifying trade tensions with major partners.
In July, Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 climbed to third place globally on the Artificial Analysis leaderboard, trailing only Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6, highlighting the growing importance of AI in the economy.
Despite these measures, the economic operation in the first nine months has set the tone for the country to achieve the full-year GDP growth target, with growth momentum expected to further consolidate in the fourth quarter.
What this adds
The economic growth has set the stage for policymakers to potentially ease off aggressive stimulus measures, as the economy is on track to meet the annual target.
What's confirmed
- The third-quarter gross domestic product growth rate, released by the Nation.al Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, beat the forecast for 4.4% growth in a Reuters poll, and improved from the more-than-three-year low of 4.3% in the April-to-June period.
- For January-September, the economy grew 4.6%, within the range of the government’s annual growth target of 4.5%-5.0%.
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- China's strategy of redirecting credit and resources from property towards high-tech industries has created a two-speed economy, where strong factory output and exports mask weak consumption and private investment.
- China's trade surplus widened more than expected in September as exports surged, keeping the country on track to surpass last year's record surplus of $1.2 trillion and likely intensifying trade tensions with major partners.
What's still developing
- It picked up pace from the 4.3 per cent expansion recorded during the second quarter, which was the lowest quarterly growth rate reported since the end of 2022.
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- China inaugurated an air force support and training center in Laos on September 29, marking China’s third overseas military facility.
- China's Finance Ministry will lead a combined $54 billion capital injection into state-owned insurers and banks as Beijing moves to shore up balance sheets and sustain growth in a slowing economy, per Bloomberg.
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- While this shift helped cushion overall consumption growth, it wasn’t enough to fully offset weakness in goods demand: Overall, real per capita consumption increased 4.4% y/y in 2025 – less than overall GDP growth – suggesting that consumption’s role in the economy is shrinking.
- US President Donald Trump signed the bill on Friday US President Donald Trump has signed a sweeping sanctions bill, taking aim at Russia's economy by punishing major purchasers of its oil and gas.
- The American economy has substantial strengths, driven mainly by investments in AI, but also glaring weaknesses, among them persistent inflation, rising unemployment, and ballooning debt.
- (TibetanReview.net, Sep05’26) – China and Nepal may have to seriously consider curtailing or, otherwise, better managing their Mt Everest economy if they are to slow the pace of the already rapidly melting glaciers around the world’s tallest peak under the effects of global warming, according to a recent study.
- Ice loss nearly doubled after 2000, compared to the previous quarter, as per a 2019 study published in Science Advances.
- ET Saturday), China’s state news agency Xinhua said.
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