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Paxton Leads Talarico in Texas Senate Poll
Confirmed
In Short: Republican Ken Paxton holds a slight lead over Democrat James Talarico in a new Texas Senate poll, with 47.2% to 46.7%.
Republican Ken Paxton leads Democrat James Talarico in a new Texas Senate poll released on Tuesday, taking a lead of 47.2 percent to 46.7 percent in the most expensive contest of the 2026 midterm cycle. The poll, conducted by Quantus Insights, shows Paxton ahead by half a point, as Republican strength among older and rural voters meets a Democratic advantage among independents, according to a summary of the results.
The survey finds that Paxton has the support of 87 percent of GOP voters, up from his low-80s number following the primary and runoff with outgoing Sen. John Cornyn, which saw over $130 million spent against the Attorney General. The biggest difference in the poll is the perception of fit with Texas voters, with 48.6 percent believing Paxton is in line with voters, while Talarico is perceived in line by 45.5 percent. However, 48.3 percent believe Talarico is not in line with Texas.
Among independent voters, Talarico holds a 15-point edge of 52 percent to 37 percent. Talarico leads the two younger age groups, including 62 percent to 29 percent among voters under 30, while Paxton leads among the state’s most reliable voter bloc: those aged 65 and older with 56 percent to 39 percent for Talarico. The biggest swing in the race is a six-point shift from a June tie, with Talarico now leading Paxton 51% to 45% in a new Siena Research Institute survey.
Paxton’s narrow lead is owed to what Breitbart News reported in August — Talarico already maxed out support among Democrats in the state. On Oct. 1, Axios reported that the Senate Leadership Fund-aligned Texas PAC spent $131 million in September and tens of millions more were incoming in the month of October, making the U.S. Senate race in Texas the most expensive Senate race of all time.
Talarico has been absent from in-person campaigning for 12 days, with his campaign citing “the flu.” However, he was spotted Saturday night at a Kacey Musgraves concert in Dallas, where video showed him enjoying the performance and meeting the Grammy-winning singer. Talarico’s campaign spokesperson JT Ennis told OutKick on Tuesday that the Democrat cares about student athletes and has opposed trans athletes playing girls’ sports when it jeopardizes safety or fairness.
The poll, released Oct. 8, shows an adjusted margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points and was analyzed by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion. The university published topline results and methodology on its website.
What this adds
The poll adds fresh pressure to a race already drawing heavy money, with Talarico leading the two younger age groups and Paxton leading among older voters.
What's confirmed
- Republican Ken Paxton leads Democrat James Talarico in a new Texas Senate poll released on Tuesday, taking a lead of 47.2 percent to 46.7 percent in the most expensive contest of the 2026 midterm cycle. The poll, conducted by Quantus Insights, shows Paxton ahead by half a point, as Republican strength among older and rural voters meets a Democratic advantage among independents, according to a summary of the results.
- The survey finds that Paxton has the support of 87 percent of GOP voters, up from his low-80s number following the primary and runoff with outgoing Sen. John Cornyn, which saw over $130 million spent against the Attorney General. The biggest difference in the poll is the perception of fit with Texas voters, with 48.6 percent believing Paxton is in line with voters, while Talarico is perceived in line by 45.5 percent. However, 48.3 percent believe Talarico is not in line with Texas.
- Among independent voters, Talarico holds a 15-point edge of 52 percent to 37 percent. Talarico leads the two younger age groups, including 62 percent to 29 percent among voters under 30, while Paxton leads among the state’s most reliable voter bloc: those aged 65 and older with 56 percent to 39 percent for Talarico. The biggest swing in the race is a six-point shift from a June tie, with Talarico now leading Paxton 51% to 45% in a new Siena Research Institute survey.
- Paxton’s narrow lead is owed to what Breitbart News reported in August — Talarico already maxed out support among Democrats in the state. On Oct. 1, Axios reported that the Senate Leadership Fund-aligned Texas PAC spent $131 million in September and tens of millions more were incoming in the month of October, making the U.S. Senate race in Texas the most expensive Senate race of all time.
- Talarico has been absent from in-person campaigning for 12 days, with his campaign citing “the flu.” However, he was spotted Saturday night at a Kacey Musgraves concert in Dallas, where video showed him enjoying the performance and meeting the Grammy-winning singer. Talarico’s campaign spokesperson JT Ennis told OutKick on Tuesday that the Democrat cares about student athletes and has opposed trans athletes playing girls’ sports when it jeopardizes safety or fairness.
- The poll, released Oct. 8, shows an adjusted margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points and was analyzed by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion. The university published topline results and methodology on its website.
What's still developing
- Younger voters are Talarico’s strongest age constituency; but typically they are also least likely to vote in midterms.
- Yet Paxton’s slow growth among Republican voters who dominate the state continues to put him in position to claim the seat.
- He is “clearly transitioning into a female,” reported White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy Stephen Miller.
- “I don’t think you have a dog in this fight but if you did you would have shot it,” Musgraves wrote on X, delivering a pointed jab at Noem’s controversial account of killing her family dog.
- The New York Times first reported on the leaked recording, which came from a small Paxton fundraiser where an attendee recorded the conversation.
- Paxton said bureaucratic delays and a priority-based referral system led to it taking three and a half days for him to be seen by an ophthalmologist.
- Democratic Senate hopeful James Talarico is ripping the “government censorship” from the Trump administration and the FCC, which forced Thursday’s interview with ABC ‘s Jimmy Kimmel Live! to be limited to YouTube.