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Hamas calculus, Israel’s gamble: How October 7 reshaped the region, 3 years on
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In Short: Hamas' October 7, 2023, attack on Israel killed around 1,200 people and took 251 hostage, breaking a 15-year 'quiet for quiet' security approach.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a devastating attack on Israel, resulting in the deaths of approximately 1,200 people and the capture of 251 others. This assault marked a significant shift from the previous 15-year period of relative calm, known as the 'quiet for quiet' approach.
According to The Indian Express, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar had previously warned that if Israel carried out any offensive actions, Hamas would launch rockets at Tel Aviv within five minutes. This threat underscores the growing capabilities of Hamas to target deeper into Israeli territory.
The attack was strategically timed based on two key conditions. First, it capitalized on the established 'quiet for quiet' approach, where both sides had unwritten rules about acceptable and unacceptable acts. Second, it involved a coordinated land, sea, and air assault, coupled with a large-scale rocket and mortar attack on Israeli cities, towns, and military bases.
Israel's response has been a relentless military offensive in Gaza since the attack. By conservative estimates, this offensive has resulted in over 70,000 Palestinian deaths, leading several states, human rights agencies, and a UN Commission of Inquiry to characterize the actions as genocide.
Prior to the attack, hard-right Israeli politicians like Bezalel Smotrich, now the country's Finance Minister and West Bank administrator, had argued that Hamas was an asset compared to Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah. This perspective highlights the complex calculus that has shaped Israel's approach to the Palestinian territories.
The dramatic escalation in violence since October 7, 2023, has reshaped regional dynamics, with significant implications for future security and political strategies in the Middle East.
What's still developing
- On October 7, 2023, a Hamas-led attack in Israel killed around 1,200 people, while 251 were taken hostage.
- Hamas’ October 7 attack occurred when it did as a result of two specific strategic conditions.