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OPEC+ Keeps November Oil Output Targets Steady
Confirmed
In Short: Gulf OPEC+ producers have agreed in principle to keep their oil production targets steady for November, according to sources close to the talks.
Gulf OPEC+ producers have agreed in principle to keep their oil production targets steady for November, according to sources close to the talks. The decision was made during a virtual meeting on Sunday.
The war in the Middle East has significantly impacted oil exports, with Gulf producers pumping at 60-80% of normal levels in recent months. This has delayed the group's capacity review, which is crucial for determining members' 2027 output quotas.
Seven core OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, made the decision to maintain September's production levels through November.
OPEC+ has been raising output targets for much of 2026 after years of production cuts, but most of these increases have remained on paper due to the ongoing conflict.
The group still has about 2 million barrels per day of output cuts in place, covering most members. These cuts are unlikely to change before 2027, as the conflict continues to affect production.
OPEC+ has been closely monitoring market conditions and retains the authority to hold additional meetings or call for an OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting if necessary.
The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which does not decide policy, also met on Sunday to review the market and noted the commitment of OPEC members and participating non-OPEC oil-producing countries to the Declaration of Cooperation.
Gulf members’ output remains far below levels before the Iran war, with the seven core members pumping 25 million barrels per day in August, up 630,000 bpd from July, but still roughly 5 million bpd below prewar levels in February.
The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for November 1, where the group will continue to assess market conditions and the economic outlook.
Analysts noted that despite rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz, output levels remain well below quota, keeping the oil market tight.
The decision to keep production targets steady reflects the group's cautious approach amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and the need to ensure reliable energy supplies.
What this adds
The decision to keep production targets steady extends a pause that began in October after six consecutive months of gradual increases.
The OPEC+ group's next major move will likely be shaped by the outcome of an ongoing audit of members’ production capacity.
Consumer nations are drawing down strategic stocks to fill the gap left by constrained Gulf exports, while producers are holding targets steady rather than promising barrels they may be unable to ship.
Background
Gulf OPEC+ producers have agreed in principle to keep their oil production targets steady for November, according to sources close to the talks.
What's confirmed
- Gulf Opec+ producers have been pumping well below output targets in the face of continuing export disruptions from the US-Israeli war on Iran, with exports fluctuating at 60-80% of normal levels in recent months.
- The war has also delayed the group's output capacity review - crucial to determine members' 2027 output quotas - because it has thrown estimates of future production potential into uncertainty, industry sources have said.
- The Opec+ group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, has agreed in principle to keep targets steady for November, the three sources close to the talks said.
- Also Read Need for dialogue to ensure reliable energy supplies: Hardeep Singh Puri Iran warns of 'painful response' to further US attacks amid sanctions Venezuela weighs exit from Opec as US discusses stake in oil fields Oil prices fall on lower demand growth forecasts despite US-Iran deadlock OPEC+ approves small September quota hike to complete 2023 cut rollback The seven core Opec+ members pumped 25 million barrels per day in August, up 630,000 bpd from July, yet still roughly 5 million bpd below prewar levels in February, Opec data shows.
- Opec+ still has about 2 million bpd of output cuts in place covering most members. It needs a capacity review to decide how to distribute increases and any changes to output are unlikely before 2027, sources have said.
- Opec+ has been raising output targets for much of 2026 after years of production cuts, but most of the increases stayed on paper because of the Middle East conflict.
- OPEC+ is set to keep oil production targets steady for November, three sources close to the matter said ahead of the group's meeting on Sunday.
- RIYADH: The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee agreed to keep oil production targets steady for November at a meeting on Sunday.
- Gulf members’ output remains far below levels before Iran war [LONDON/MOSCOW] Opec+ agreed to keep oil-production targets steady for November at a meeting on Sunday (Oct 4), the producer group said, in line with expectations that further output policy adjustments are unlikely until next year.
- “The Opec+ group of seven kept their production ceilings unchanged, in line with market expectations. That said, despite rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz, their output levels remain well below quota,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
- A separate Opec+ ministerial group called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which does not decide policy, also met on Sunday to review the market.
- Seven core members of the group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia made the decision for November in a brief online meeting on Sunday.
What's still developing
- Those increases, largely symbolic because of the impact the Iran war has had on Persian Gulf output, theoretically unwound cutbacks made in 2023 and may give the group’s Gulf members greater scope to boost output when the conflict abates.
- The alliance’s next decision will be whether to restore another layer of halted output taken offline in 2022, a complicated process likely to be shaped by the outcome of an ongoing audit of members’ production capacity.
- “Any actions that undermine the security of energy supplies,” whether by targeting infrastructure or disrupting international maritime routes, could increase market volatility and weaken collective efforts under the Declaration of Cooperation, the committee said.
- "discredits the decisions of the Russian leadership."
- RIYADH — The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), agreed to keep their oil output level unchanged for the second consecutive month in November, OPEC said in a statement on Sunday.
- The OPEC+ alliance had raised its production targets for most of the year before deciding to keep them unchanged in October, after completing the phasing out of voluntary cuts, which totaled approximately 1.65 million barrels per day that began in 2023.
- OPEC+ kept its oil production targets unchanged for November 2026 at a video conference on Sunday, 4 October, extending a pause that began in October after six consecutive months of gradual increases.
- Consumer nations are drawing down strategic stocks to fill the gap left by constrained Gulf exports, while producers are holding targets steady rather than promising barrels they may be unable to ship.
- Members are preparing assessments of their production capacity that will help set baselines for 2027 quotas, with a review now expected in mid-November after delays.
- The same seven producers left October targets untouched at their previous virtual meeting on 6 September, so Sunday's decision stretches the pause into a second month.
- An unchanged target therefore preserves the group's nominal supply plan without signalling any additional planned increase, and OPEC+ still has another layer of production cuts covering most members of the 21-country alliance through the end of 2026.
- WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively.