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Latino Voters Shift Back to Democrats Ahead of Midterms
Confirmed
In Short: A new poll indicates that Latino voters are shifting back to Democrats ahead of the midterm elections, with 59% preferring Democrats to control Congress compared to 35% for Republicans.
A new poll indicates that Latino voters are shifting back to Democrats ahead of the midterm elections, with 59% preferring Democrats to control Congress compared to 35% for Republicans.
The poll, conducted by NBC News and Telemundo, surveyed 800 registered Latino voters across the U.S. and found that 66% of respondents believe President Donald Trump's deportation policies have gone too far.
Latino voters helped propel Trump back to the White House two years ago, but now they are turning on him, according to the poll.
The shift gives Democrats a major opportunity to capitalize in the 2026 election, especially in states and districts with sizable Latino populations.
"These fake polls, they don't account for one thing. They don't account for the fact that Trump is out campaigning," Trump told a cheering crowd at a political rally in Dayton, Ohio, on Saturday night.
"With you at my side, we have always prevailed and prevailed by a lot and got record-setting votes and record-setting victory," Trump added, dismissing the poll results.
"We've won every battle. We've defeated every hope. We've overcome every threat. And now we are on the cusp of beating the communists, socialist, radicalized lunatics and villains once and for all. We're going to put them down once and for all," Trump said.
"The poll results indicate a striking reversal of Republican gains with Latino voters and point to trouble ahead for Republican candidates in the midterms," said Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo of Hart Research Associates.
"What we can really say from this data is that 2024 was the outlier. Trump is a central figure. He’s had real consequences on our politics, and without his presence, I think none of these changes would be evident in the data among Latinos," said Republican pollster Micah Roberts.
What this adds
The poll also found that Democrats have a 24-point lead on whom Latino voters want to see in control of Congress, 59%-35%.
Latino voters are particularly concerned about high prices and Trump’s approach to immigration enforcement.
The poll surveyed 800 registered Latino voters across the U.S. via phone interviews and online surveys via text message.
What's confirmed
- A new poll indicates that Latino voters are shifting back to Democrats ahead of the midterm elections, with 59% preferring Democrats to control Congress compared to 35% for Republicans.
- The poll, conducted by NBC News and Telemundo, surveyed 800 registered Latino voters across the U.S. and found that 66% of respondents believe President Donald Trump's deportation policies have gone too far.
- Latino voters helped propel Trump back to the White House two years ago, but now they are turning on him, according to the poll.
- The shift gives Democrats a major opportunity to capitalize in the 2026 election, especially in states and districts with sizable Latino populations.
- "These fake polls, they don't account for one thing. They don't account for the fact that Trump is out campaigning," Trump told a cheering crowd at a political rally in Dayton, Ohio, on Saturday night.
- "With you at my side, we have always prevailed and prevailed by a lot and got record-setting votes and record-setting victory," Trump added, dismissing the poll results.
- "We've won every battle. We've defeated every hope. We've overcome every threat. And now we are on the cusp of beating the communists, socialist, radicalized lunatics and villains once and for all. We're going to put them down once and for all," Trump said.
- "The poll results indicate a striking reversal of Republican gains with Latino voters and point to trouble ahead for Republican candidates in the midterms," said Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo of Hart Research Associates.
- "What we can really say from this data is that 2024 was the outlier. Trump is a central figure. He’s had real consequences on our politics, and without his presence, I think none of these changes would be evident in the data among Latinos," said Republican pollster Micah Roberts.
What's still developing
- Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., discusses the GOP's stance on President Donald Trump's immigration policy as the midterm elections approach, weighing in on border security and immigration enforcement on 'America Reports.' Latino voters are swinging away from President Donald Trump and Republicans ahead of the midterm elections.
- This screenshot of a Fox News poll indicates that nearly half of respondents believe deportation efforts are too aggressive. (Fox & Friends/Screengrab) The GOP still shows drastic improvement among Latino voters over the last decade, however.
- Democrats had just a 12-point lead among Latino voters going into the 2024 elections, showing that Trump and the GOP have lost some of the ground they gained with the voting group.
- In 2016 and 2018, Latino support for a GOP Congress sat at just 21% and 26% respectively.
- NBC News and Telemundo conducted the poll via phone interviews and online surveys via text message.
- That’s double the lead they had among Latino voters at this point in 2024, though not quite at the heights the party enjoyed at this time in 2018, according to NBC News polling from just before that election.
- “Despite a more favorable environment for Democrats, any Democratic gains this November will be driven largely more by opposition to Trump and the economic environment than by support for Democrats,” Arroyo-Cardona said.
- A sizable majority of Latinos (63%) say their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living, while 25% say it is staying even and 11% say it is going up faster than the cost of living, similar to findings in 2024.
- Like the broader electorate, Latino voters are racked by major concerns about high prices and Trump’s approach to immigration enforcement.
- A greater share of Latino voters hold negative views of the Republican Party than at any time since 2016, and Democrats have leads on issues like dealing with the economy, immigration, the cost of living, corruption and healthcare.
- Today, they give Democrats a 21-point advantage on the same question.