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MLB Insiders Predict Skubal's Free Agency Deal
Developing
In Short: MLB insiders predict Tarik Skubal's free agency contract could reach $500 million over 10 years, with 78% expecting a deal before the Dec. 1 CBA expiration.
MLB insiders predict that Tarik Skubal, the back-to-back AL Cy Young winner for the Los Angeles Dodgers, could command a free agency deal worth $500 million over 10 years.
According to ESPN, 21 out of 27 panelists (78%) believe Skubal's contract will be finalized before the December 1 expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, similar to the timing of previous nine-figure deals.
Industry insiders are intrigued by Skubal's potential performance in the playoffs and the negotiating tactics of his agent, Scott Boras.
The current free agent class, while not as strong top to bottom as previous years, still features Skubal as a standout prize.
The unique conditions Skubal faces, including the looming lockout and the need to perform well in the playoffs, make his free agency particularly interesting.
What this adds
This report adds insider predictions on the timing and scale of Skubal's free agency deal, contrasting with the broader context of recent free agent classes.
The sources have not established specific suitors for Skubal or the exact terms of potential offers.
Background
While the MLB insiders are busy predicting the playoffs, the Ravens' disappointing 2025 season highlights the challenges of achieving Super Bowl aspirations.
What's still developing
- I also asked panelists whether the deal would be done before the Dec. 1 expiration of the CBA, when the expected lockout would start: 21 of 27 (78%) predicted the deal will be done before Dec. 1, similar timing to the nine-figure deals of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman and Javier Baez that came before the 2021-2022 lockout began.
- There has been a steady flow of elite free agents -- complete with discussion about where they might land and how big their contracts might be -- during the past few offseasons: Aaron Judge after the 2022 season, Shohei Ohtani after the 2023 season, Juan Soto after the 2024 season (and a postseason update ) and then Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker after the 2025 season.