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US Officials See Reduced Likelihood of Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Before 2028
Developing
In Short: US President Donald Trump has previously played down the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan during his presidency, saying Xi had told him China would not invade while Trump was in office.
US officials now believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is becoming increasingly unlikely, despite Chinese President Xi Jinping’s directive for the military to be ready by 2027 to seize the island by force if necessary.
The assessment is based partly on delays in China’s military readiness linked to Xi’s anti-corruption campaign, as well as Beijing’s interest in the outcome of Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election.
Sources say China could increasingly consider using force from 2028 if Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wins a fourth consecutive presidential term, particularly if current President Lai Ching-te is re-elected.
China has never ruled out using force to bring Taiwan under its control but has not publicly confirmed an order to invade by 2027.
In its annual threat assessment released in March, US intelligence said China did not have a plan at that time to invade Taiwan in 2027 and continued to prefer bringing the island under its control without force if possible.
One US official said Beijing viewed both major US political parties as broadly aligned on Taiwan.
Chinese military exercises last year were smaller and less threatening than those of previous years, although activity increased this year.
There are way too many pieces that aren’t quite in place yet for what would be the most difficult military operation any military has attempted probably since the Allied invasion of Normandy, a US official said.
The assessment represents a significant shift from the long-standing understanding among US officials that Xi wanted China’s People’s Liberation Army to be capable of taking Taiwan by force by 2027, the centenary of the PLA’s founding.
The 2027 benchmark has generally been viewed by analysts as a target for military preparedness rather than a fixed invasion date.
What's still developing
- US President Donald Trump has previously played down the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan during his presidency, saying Xi had told him China would not invade while Trump was in office.
- Lai and the DPP support Taiwan’s separate identity from China, a position that Beijing strongly opposes.
- China considers Taiwan part of its territory, while Taiwan rejects Beijing’s claims and maintains that its people should determine the island’s future.
- The Pentagon declined to comment, while China’s US embassy and Taiwan’s representative office in Washington did not immediately respond to requests for comment.