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MLB Division Series Matchups Set as Wild-Card Round Ends
Developing
In Short: The 2026 MLB division series matchups are beginning to take shape following the conclusion of the wild-card round. The Chicago White Sox emerged as the first team to advance, setting up a series against the Cleveland Guardians starting Saturday.
The 2026 MLB division series matchups are beginning to take shape following the conclusion of the wild-card round. The Chicago White Sox emerged as the first team to advance, setting up a series against the Cleveland Guardians starting Saturday.
In the National League, the Milwaukee Brewers are set to face the San Diego Padres. The Brewers have been rolling since spring and are favored to win 64% of simulations, despite the Padres' strong finish.
The New York Yankees, who swept the Boston Red Sox, will take on the Tampa Bay Rays in an AL East showdown.
The Padres, who swept the Chicago Cubs, have been on a roll, but they face a tough challenge against the Brewers, who have been consistent throughout the season.
When the Padres' key players like Michael King, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Adrian Morejon are performing well, the team looks unbeatable. However, the Brewers' hot streak leading into the postseason gives them a significant edge.
In the National League, the Brewers and Padres are tied for the second-most runs scored after the All-Star break, but the Brewers' sustained performance throughout the season gives them an advantage.
The division series matchups are set, and ESPN MLB experts are ready to break down what each remaining club needs to do to advance to the League Championship Series.
What's still developing
- Upset forecast: (Brewers win 64% of simulations) While the real-world edge that Milwaukee possesses entering this series might feel smaller than this number suggests, it's also not that hard to explain.
- While Milwaukee has every reason to feel good about where they are as their postseason begins, the formula for the hot Padres to beat them is not hard to pinpoint.
- When Michael King is dotting his fastball, when Fernando Tatis Jr. is playing with his hair on fire, when Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill are swinging it well, when Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller are lingering in the bullpen, and when 40,000-plus San Diegans are going berserk, the Padres look unbeatable.
- Simply put, as well as the Padres have played over the course of the season, the Brewers have been doing that for nearly the entire campaign.