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Eurozone Business Climate Below Expectations in September
Confirmed
In Short: The Eurozone economic sentiment weakened in September, falling below expectations and its long-term average.
The Eurozone economic sentiment weakened in September, falling from 98.4 to 97.9, below the expected 99.0 and its long-term average of 100, according to the latest data.
The Economic Sentiment Indicator's decline reflects a more cautious outlook among households and employment expectations, despite some improvements in business confidence.
Consumer confidence fell from -15.5 to -16.5, while the Employment Expectations Indicator dropped from 98.8 to 97.5, moving further below its long-term average.
Hiring expectations weakened particularly in retail and services, even as industry and construction reported better employment plans.
Manufacturers are becoming less pessimistic and services remain positive, but households are turning more cautious just as hiring expectations soften.
The September survey points to an increasingly uneven eurozone recovery signal rather than broad deterioration, with inflation expectations rising and selling-price expectations increasing sharply in industry and construction.
One caveat is that September’s euro-area aggregate excludes Italy’s consumer survey because of a structural break, limiting direct comparison with previous months.
The Euro traded mixed on Monday as investors looked ahead to next week's Eurozone inflation data, with economists increasingly expecting the European Central Bank to resume raising interest rates in September.
Crédit Agricole reached a similar conclusion, describing energy as 'back in the driver's seat' of Eurozone inflation.
The move in AUD/USD appears to be a corrective bounce, as the broader narrative remains tied to expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
The New York Fed Governor John Williams said that he “sees no need for urgency after September rate hike,” a dovish statement that pushed the US Dollar Index (DXY) modestly lower, though it remains positive in the day.
Williams added that more data will help with future policy decisions, and that “if the economy meets expectations, one further hike is likely this year.” He stated that inflation would likely end at 3.5% this year and hit the Fed’s 2% goal by 2028.
What this adds
The report adds that the September survey points to an increasingly uneven eurozone recovery signal rather than broad deterioration.
The sources have not established a direct link between the Eurozone's economic sentiment and the performance of specific industries or regions.
Background
The Eurozone economic sentiment weakened in September, falling from 98.4 to 97.9, below the expected 99.0 and its long-term average of 100.
What's confirmed
- The Economic Sentiment Indicator fell from 98.4 to 97.9, missing the 99.0 consensus and remaining below its long-term average of 100.
- Gold prices extended corrections, dropping below $4,300 to a low of $4,262.45, as of the European session on September 24.
What's still developing
- AUD/USD reverses a brief uptick and turns lower to hit nine-week lows below 0.7000 in the European morning on Tuesday, as traders digest cautious remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock during the press conference.
- AUD/USD hits a fresh low since early August during the Asian session on Friday and looks vulnerable near 0.7000 after breaking below the 200-day SMA overnight.
- The commodity currently trades just below the $4,300 mark as traders move to the sidelines ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting, starting later today.
- Netflix has also unveiled first look photos, which can be seen below.
- All three components (current conditions, expectations, and overall sentiment) now sit below their five-year average of 68.1.
- Compared with a year ago, that split is even clearer: Current conditions are down 12.0 points, while expectations are essentially unchanged.
- Friday, September 25, 2026 · 4:13 AM ET In Short: Higher oil prices, firm US data, and hawkish Federal Reserve comments have reinforced rate-hike expectations, supporting the US Dollar and potentially further gains in yields, which could keep the bearish bias intact.
- He expresses strong expectations for continued capability jumps in AI systems.
- Kareena Kapoor Khan and Prithviraj Sukumaran’s much-awaited crime thriller Daayra arrived in cinemas on Friday, September 18.
- Education and health services led hiring in the month of August, according to ADP. (iStock) On the negative side, manufacturing lost 17,000 jobs and professional and business services lost 16,000.
- The figure is below economists’ estimates of a gain of 48,000 jobs and down from the prior month's revised 46,000 payrolls.
- Large businesses – those with 500 or more employees – gained 34,000 jobs in August.