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Collins Leads in Maine Poll, Defying National Trends
Confirmed
In Short: A new poll shows Republican Senator Susan Collins leading Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine's Senate race.
Republican Senator Susan Collins has taken a narrow lead over Democrat Troy Jackson in a new poll conducted by the New York Times/Siena College/Portland Press Herald, with 49% support compared to Jackson's 46%.
The poll, which surveyed 619 likely voters from September 15-22, marks Collins' best showing in a major public survey of the November race.
Collins' standing has held up despite President Donald Trump's approval ratings hitting second-term lows, with his approval at 37% in a separate University of New Hampshire poll.
The poll was conducted largely before a ProPublica report on a shelved FBI corruption inquiry involving Collins.
Collins' office has denied any wrongdoing, calling the allegations 'outlandish,' and criticizing media outlets for their coverage.
Jackson, a former Maine Senate president, is currently eight points underwater, with 41% viewing him favorably compared to 51% for Collins.
The poll suggests Collins is attracting crossover support, with 8% of Democrats supporting her.
Despite national political headwinds for Republicans, Collins remains a strong candidate, with 55% of respondents indicating they want Democrats to control the Senate but still leaning toward Collins.
Collins' campaign has a history of outperforming polls, even in tough Republican cycles.
The race remains highly competitive, with the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
What this adds
The poll's timing before the ProPublica report means it does not reflect any potential impact of the corruption inquiry on voter sentiment.
The poll's findings suggest Collins' ability to attract bipartisan support despite national trends against Republicans.
What's confirmed
- 15-22, within the poll’s 4.9-point margin of error.
What's still developing
- Kao told the FBI that Collins’ office steered millions in Navy research money to his company while her campaign and an allied super PAC sought his donations.
- Collins’ office called Kao’s claims “outlandish” and vigorously denied them, and the senator criticized the media outlet in interviews this week.
- The five-term Republican leads 49% to 46% among 619 likely voters polled Sept.
- Collins’ office has denied wrongdoing, while the FBI previously said its investigation found nothing implicating Collins or her campaign.
- Collins also received support from 8 percent of Democrats, while the candidates were tied at 47 percent among unenrolled and other voters.
- The results offer a potential warning for Democrats because Maine is among the party’s leading opportunities to gain a Republican-held seat.
- The poll was conducted largely before publication of a report concerning an abandoned FBI investigation connected to Collins and several other lawmakers.
- Still, the poll shows positive movement toward Collins, who trailed former Democratic nominee Graham Platner by two points in a similar survey in June.
- Instead, she said she’s leaning toward Collins because she thinks the incumbent is better positioned to work across the aisle.