Home · Politics · Sep 12 archive
Reform Party Could Be Largest if Burnham Calls Early Election, Analyst Warns
Confirmed
In Short: Polling expert Sir John Curtice advises Andy Burnham against an early vote, citing Reform UK's potential to surpass Labour and become the largest party in Parliament.
Reform UK could become the largest party if Andy Burnham calls an early election, according to polling expert Sir John Curtice. Despite recent setbacks, the party's vote is geographically evenly spread, which could work to its advantage. 'The numbers are not there' for Burnham to secure another term as prime minister, Curtice warns, pointing to the Conservative Party's 2024 experience as a cautionary tale.
The Institute for Government acknowledges the need for reform at the Cabinet Office but notes that it 'lives on, in a hollowed-out form.' Burnham has set up an outpost in Manchester, 'No 10 North,' to empower No 10 in Downing Street and support his devolution agenda. However, the arrangement must deliver clear results to avoid being seen as a mere gimmick.
Alongside empowering No 10, Burnham's party has secured a significant boost with a £36m donation from a cryptocurrency entrepreneur. Despite this, Reform UK has slumped in the polls, overtaken by Labour for the first time since March 2025. A recent YouGov poll shows a tight race between the three largest parties, with Reform UK and Labour both on 23 per cent of the vote.
Calling an early vote would be a risky move for Burnham, according to Curtice. 'Reform UK could still beat Labour to take more seats in the House of Commons,' he warns. The party's vote is 'geographically evenly spread,' which could work to its advantage if it becomes the largest party. However, Curtice advises against an early election, citing the Conservative Party's 2024 experience as a cautionary tale.
What's confirmed
- Reform UK could become the largest party if Andy Burnham calls an early election, according to polling expert Sir John Curtice. Despite recent setbacks, the party's vote is geographically evenly spread, which could work to its advantage. 'The numbers are not there' for Burnham to secure another term as prime minister, Curtice warns, pointing to the Conservative Party's 2024 experience as a cautionary tale.
- The Institute for Government acknowledges the need for reform at the Cabinet Office but notes that it 'lives on, in a hollowed-out form.' Burnham has set up an outpost in Manchester, 'No 10 North,' to empower No 10 in Downing Street and support his devolution agenda. However, the arrangement must deliver clear results to avoid being seen as a mere gimmick.
- Alongside empowering No 10, Burnham's party has secured a significant boost with a £36m donation from a cryptocurrency entrepreneur. Despite this, Reform UK has slumped in the polls, overtaken by Labour for the first time since March 2025. A recent YouGov poll shows a tight race between the three largest parties, with Reform UK and Labour both on 23 per cent of the vote.
- Calling an early vote would be a risky move for Burnham, according to Curtice. 'Reform UK could still beat Labour to take more seats in the House of Commons,' he warns. The party's vote is 'geographically evenly spread,' which could work to its advantage if it becomes the largest party. However, Curtice advises against an early election, citing the Conservative Party's 2024 experience as a cautionary tale.
What's still developing
- Head North, the part-memoir, part-manifesto Burnham co-wrote with Steve Rotheram, includes an acknowledgement to Purnell – “for believing in me and seeing things others didn’t”.
- This was a much-needed reform in the eyes of many including the Institute for Government, though the think tank is concerned it did not go far enough given that the Cabinet Office “lives on, in a hollowed-out form”.
- All three cross-cutting priorities are vitally important to Burnham and the reforms are being sold as a “gamechanger”.
- A No 10 source says the arrangement has worked better than expected, with Burnham making it clear that No 10 North “can’t be a gimmick” and must genuinely change how the country is run.
- Nigel Farage’s party has slumped in the polls in recent months and is battling a series of scandals as well as a police investigation over donations.
- On Friday, it revealed it had secured a record staggering £36m from British cryptocurrency entrepreneur Ben Delo in a major boost for its election campaign.
- “At the moment, the polls are saying that the Labour Party would lose its majority and that indeed one of the two post-Burnham bounce mega-poll MRPs actually has Reform with more seats than Labour,” he said.
- They could be the largest party, he added, because their vote is “geographically evenly spread,” which was a “big disadvantage in 2024 when they were coming third, but is not necessarily a disadvantage if they are coming first, even if only narrowly first”.