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Tuesday tells the Japanese Yen more than next week will
Confirmed
In Short: The Japanese ten-year government bond yield surpassed 3%, and key economic data including wage growth and GDP will be released, while the US Treasury Secretary hinted at upcoming measures.
The ten-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has surged to 3%, marking the first time since 1996. This move in the bond market precedes a series of important economic indicators, including Japanese wage data and GDP figures, scheduled for release later in the week.
Japanese wage data for July, due at 23:30 GMT, is expected to show a 3.9% year-over-year increase, up from 3.4%. This figure is crucial for the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which has made it a key condition for its monetary policy decisions.
The second estimate of Japanese GDP, released at 23:50 GMT, is forecasted to show a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter growth, with the deflator at 2.6%. Additionally, the current account is expected to show a surplus of ¥2.87 trillion, reversing a previous deficit.
US Treasury Secretary's comments during the New York afternoon suggested that the Japanese are planning significant actions, with a 97.0% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate hike at the next BOJ meeting on September 18th.
What's confirmed
What's still developing
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- Things, however, became even more cryptic during the NY afternoon when the US Treasury Sec stated, ‘I know what the Japanese are planning on doing.’ Recall, the next BOJ rate decision is scheduled for Sept 18th with Sept BoJ OIS now implying a 97.0% chance of a +25bp hike (vs. 92.5% from Tuesday).