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OPEC+ Keeps Oil Output Policy Unchanged for October Amid Production Challenges
Confirmed
In Short: OPEC+ has decided to maintain its oil production policy for October, citing ongoing disruptions from the Iran conflict that limit the group's ability to influence physical supply.
OPEC+ has kept its oil production policy unchanged for October, despite completing its planned September increase, according to reports. The decision reflects ongoing production challenges, particularly from the Iran conflict, which has restricted crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
Sources indicate that the pause will leave around 2 million barrels per day (mbbl/d) of cuts in place while OPEC+ discusses new production quotas for 2027. The group, comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, agreed to maintain the policy during a recent meeting.
The group's ability to influence physical supply is limited by these disruptions, and OPEC+ must now review members' production capacity before setting 2027 output baselines, which will determine future quotas. Despite the agreed production increases, OPEC+ continues to produce well below its targets due to these ongoing issues.
The decision follows the group's September production increase, which completed the phased reversal of a 1.65 million barrels per day (mbpd) supply cut first introduced in 2023. However, the war continues to restrict regional exports, and another layer of production cuts covering most OPEC+ members remains in place through the end of 2026.
What's confirmed
- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed on Sunday to keep its oil output policy unchanged for October, as the group needs to agree on new quotas before deciding its next output steps.
What's still developing
- “OPEC+ currently has very limited power over the physical oil market,” Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy said.
- The seven producers are scheduled to meet again on October 4.
- Production targets can be changed on paper but not guaranteed to reach markets.