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Most Critical Minerals Aren’t Going to the Energy Transition
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In Short: A new study, based on data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), indicates that strategies such as lower vehicle ownership, smaller batteries, and enhanced recycling could drastically reduce lithium demand by up to 92% by 2050, compared to the most intensive scenarios.
A new study, based on data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), indicates that strategies such as lower vehicle ownership, smaller batteries, and enhanced recycling could drastically reduce lithium demand by up to 92% by 2050, compared to the most intensive scenarios. This finding challenges the assumption that critical minerals will be in high demand for the energy transition.
At the February 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial, U.S. officials highlighted the importance of increasing mineral production for reasons including missile-defense systems, artificial intelligence, and economic security. The event underscored the multifaceted uses of these minerals beyond just the energy sector.
Jessica Obeid, Founding Partner of New Energy Consult, emphasized the impact of recurring heatwaves on Europe's energy system, stating, 'Rising temperatures are reshaping both demand and supply, making proximity, flexibility, and reliability as critical as price.
According to reports, more than 40 countries accounting for nearly 70% of global electricity demand set new peak demand records during recent heatwaves, highlighting the climate pressures reshaping Europe's energy ties and positioning Egypt at the center of these shifting dependencies.
What's confirmed
What's still developing
- It includes minerals for weapons, data centers, construction and conventional industry, as well as the cost of expanding the global fleet of battery-electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel-cell cars and vans from 11 million in 2020 to almost 2 billion in 2050 Smaller batteries, fewer cars and higher recycling rates would reduce the amount of new ore required.
- Using International Energy Agency (IEA) data, Oakland calculated that wind, solar, renewable-power networks, grid batteries and electric vehicles accounted for 26% of combined demand for copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and magnet rare earths in 2024.
- Europe’s latest heatwave is doing more than straining electricity grids; it is reshaping the fundamentals of gas markets and exposing the vulnerabilities of the continent’s energy system.
- Recurring heatwaves are turning the European summer into a decisive season for energy security.
Sources
- egyptoil-gas.comlink