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The charts that show the havoc El Nino is set to wreck across the world
Confirmed
In Short: The World Meteorological Organisation predicts a very strong El Nino event, with significant impacts on global weather patterns and economies.
Forecasts from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) indicate that El Nino, a naturally occurring weather phenomenon, will persist through February 2027, with a near 100 percent likelihood. This is the first time such certainty has been expressed in an El Nino update, reflecting strong agreement among the WMO's network of forecasting bodies.
El Nino, meaning 'boy child' in Spanish, has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies worldwide, according to the WMO. The organisation noted that the phenomenon is being fueled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions in the tropical Pacific, which is expected to strengthen further in the coming months.
The Panama Canal, a vital waterway linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, will cut the number of ships passing through it starting next month due to a lack of rainfall as the El Nino weather pattern takes hold over the region. This is a sign of the severe drought affecting Panama, despite it being one of the wettest nations on Earth.
The WMO chief, Celeste Saulo, warned that if the current trajectory continues, this El Nino event may be stronger than anything since monitoring began, 'so literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades.' The WMO expects El Nino to peak toward the end of the year, with significant impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to risks of floods, drought, and extreme heat.
The impacts of El Nino are already being felt in other parts of the world. Unusually weak monsoon rains in India and catastrophic wildfires in Indonesia are just a few examples. In East Africa, torrential rains and flooding are expected, while southern Africa is likely to experience intensified droughts, threatening food supplies and livelihoods.
MPs from across the political spectrum in the UK are calling on the government to rethink its substantial aid cuts to Africa and Asia, given the scale of the potential impact. Around one quarter of UK food imports, including rice, coffee, cocoa, and tropical fruits, are from regions most exposed to El Nino, according to research from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit.
What's confirmed
- “El Nino is being supersized before our eyes,” Guterres said.
What's still developing
- Those changes in winds and ocean temperatures will likely turbocharge extreme weather events because of how warm the world already is from fossil fuel pollution, experts say.
- The powerful El Nino event of 2023-24 contributed to 2024 becoming the warmest year on record, and “we should not be surprised if this record is broken”, Saulo said.
- El Nino causes surface temperatures to rise in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, triggering changes in wind, pressure and rainfall patterns around the world.
- “The world is heading into this El Niño at precisely the wrong moment,” Dr Philip Goodwin, CEO of Unicef UK, told The Independent.
- MPs from across the political divide are now calling on the government to step up its support, as aid groups warn that countries set to be most impacted by the super El Niño are also those bearing the brunt of the global aid squeeze.
- Tens of millions of the world’s poorest people are also expected to be plunged into humanitarian crisis as the extreme weather event hits - just as vital support for health, nutrition and disaster response is being gutted by devastating foreign aid cuts from wealthy countries.