Why India is expecting GDP surprise after best Q1 for loan growth in over a decade

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Harold Stanley, President of Morgan, Stanley, & Co. LCCN2016876783 (cropped) — Photo: Harris & Ewing, photographer (cropped and reuploaded to Wikimedia Commons by Emiya1980) / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain)

“An upswing in GDP growth close to psychological 8% threshold in a quarter laden with impact of geopolitical tensions and spike in oil prices to an average $97/bbl is a positive surprise,” said Union Bank of India economists led by Kanika Pasricha.

It is not just India that is seeing a pick-up in demand for loans, with the 8.5% growth in bank credit in Asia excluding China the highest in 18 years, according to Morgan Stanley. “The robust growth in sales, notwithstanding the higher price scenario, suggests that the underlying growth momentum remains strong,” said Aditi Gupta, an economist at Bank of Baroda, adding that both consumption and manufacturing engines are fuelling growth.

Economic activity, and as a result credit growth, has held up despite uncertainties from the West Asia war,” Upasna Bhardwaj and Harsh Doshi, economists with Kotak Mahindra Bank , said in a report earlier this month. RBI data shows outstanding non-food loans of banks were up 18.3% year-on-year as at the end of June.

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“An upswing in GDP growth close to psychological 8% threshold in a quarter laden with impact of geopolitical tensions and spike in oil prices to an average $97/bbl is a positive surprise,” said Union Bank of India…
RBI data shows outstanding non-food loans of banks were up 18.3% year-on-year as at the end of June.
Economic activity, and as a result credit growth, has held up despite uncertainties from the West Asia war,” Upasna Bhardwaj and Harsh Doshi, economists with Kotak Mahindra Bank , said in a report earlier this month.
It is not just India that is seeing a pick-up in demand for loans, with the 8.5% growth in bank credit in Asia excluding China the highest in 18 years, according to Morgan Stanley.
“The robust growth in sales, notwithstanding the higher price scenario, suggests that the underlying growth momentum remains strong,” said Aditi Gupta, an economist at Bank of Baroda, adding that both consumption and…

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