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Fed's Kevin Warsh warns inflation is too high, sparking bets rate hikes are coming

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Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve photo portrait
Photo: Federal Reserve / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain)

United States Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said the US central bank will “have work to do” if policymakers are not confident that underlying inflation is returning to its 2 percent target. “Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed,” Warsh said in an address at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole economic symposium in the US state of Wyoming.

The consumer price index shows prices have risen 3.4% over the twelve months ending in July, while the Fed's preferred measure puts inflation at 3.7% during that period. Speaking from Jackson Hole, Wyo., Warsh argued that the labor market is stable, investment is strong and consumer spending is resilient.

“Short-term interest rates are the predominant tool to achieve the dual mandate,” Warsh said in his remarks on Friday. “Progress over the past two years has been modest,” Warsh said.

"None of these measures are perfect," Warsh said. CME Group’s FedWatch, which tracks the likelihood of monetary policy decisions, shows a 57.4 percent chance that the central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting in mid-September.

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